Sat, Feb 1, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 312 | 05 | 111 | 428 |
| EDM | 014 | 118 | 216 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:32TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:08TORMatthew KniesPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 12:50TORBobby McMannPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Max Domi · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–0
- P2 11:27EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Brett Kulak, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P3 0:18TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies · Deflected, 0.16 xG4–1
- P3 6:04EDMZach HymanAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 11:33EDMCorey PerryAssists: Brett Kulak, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:15EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:26EDMVasily Podkolzin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:02TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:04TORConor Timmins: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:04EDMCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:56TORSimon Benoit: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies9:59
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Domi – Robertson – McMann8:07
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Lorentz – Kampf – Holmberg6:43
xG 0.08–0.45 (14%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander12:19
xG 0.18–0.61 (23%)attempts 5–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit6:27
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Rielly – Timmins6:09
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Rielly – McCabe2:14
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Draisaitl – McDavid9:50
xG 0.75–0.38 (66%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Skinner – Janmark – Kapanen3:16
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:33
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Brown – Janmark – Podkolzin2:41
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Nurse13:28
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Kulak – Bouchard15:12
xG 0.88–0.50 (64%)attempts 25–10goals 3–1
- Klingberg – Kulak2:01
xG 0.19–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).