Tue, Feb 4, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 111 | 19 | 328 |
| TBL | 014 | 210 | 214 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:09OTTMichael AmadioPPAssists: Ridly Greig, David Perron · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 1:44TBLLuke GlendeningAssists: Emil Lilleberg, Nick Perbix · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:38TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 9:30OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 1:56TBLBrandon HagelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:25TBLRyan McDonaghENGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–4
- P3 18:40OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Jake Sanderson, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:15OTTThomas Chabot: Holding2 min
- P1 12:35TBLErik Cernak: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 3:31OTTRidly Greig: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:19OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:54OTTArtem Zub: Holding2 min
- P3 16:14TBLRyan McDonagh: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Highmore – Greig2:51
xG 0.09–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Stützle2:19
xG 0.08–0.07 (56%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle3:03
xG 0.01–0.23 (3%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle3:29
xG 0.00–0.48 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot15:26
xG 0.73–0.34 (68%)attempts 19–13goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Kleven10:06
xG 0.64–0.54 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–2
- Kleven – Zub2:14
xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Cirelli – Hagel4:41
xG 0.57–0.04 (93%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point8:07
xG 0.55–0.12 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Eyssimont6:19
xG 0.55–0.14 (79%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Goncalves4:48
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak14:53
xG 0.66–0.05 (93%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh14:04
xG 0.93–0.54 (63%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg11:34
xG 0.72–0.70 (51%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).