Thu, Feb 6, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 111 | 010 | 128 |
| TBL | 111 | 19 | 311 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P2 5:27OTTMichael AmadioAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:14TBLBrandon HagelGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 15:44TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Gage Goncalves · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 19:08TBLErik CernakENAssists: Brayden Point · Slap, 0.28 xG1–4
- P3 19:34TBLMitchell ChaffeeAssists: Luke Glendening, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:02TBLNikita Kucherov: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:28OTTRidly Greig: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:15TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:58OTTJake Sanderson: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:46TBLGage Goncalves: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:26OTTTyler Kleven: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Perron – Amadio – Stützle3:56
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Highmore – Batherson – Ostapchuk5:13
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Greig6:38
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Perron – Amadio – Greig5:19
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot12:34
xG 0.45–0.26 (63%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Chabot – Matinpalo3:24
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub13:13
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Goncalves8:17
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Girgensons – Sheary – Chaffee5:42
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point2:30
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Paul – Hagel7:14
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak10:50
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Cernak – Lilleberg2:40
xG 0.07–0.12 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh15:00
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).