Thu, Feb 6, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Seattle Kraken 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 18 | 012 | 330 |
| SEA | 07 | 09 | 111 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:23TORPhilippe MyersAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 18:53TORBobby McMannPPGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Max Domi · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 12:37TORMatthew KniesAssists: Jake McCabe, Auston Matthews · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P3 5:43SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Joey Daccord · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:34TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:34SEAMitchell Stephens: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:51TORPhilippe Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 17:06SEAChandler Stephenson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 3:25TORMax Domi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:21TORSimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:21SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:59TORMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:52TORAuston Matthews: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Matthews – Knies9:45
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Holmberg – Robertson – McMann8:36
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Lorentz – Kampf4:59
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Tavares – Nylander – Marner10:41
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Rielly14:27
xG 0.99–0.77 (56%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Myers – Benoit8:30
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Rielly – Myers2:05
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestStephenson – Tanev – Tolvanen2:49
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen8:36
xG 0.15–0.10 (62%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – McCann – Wright7:19
xG 0.08–0.08 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Stephens – Tanev – Kartye2:48
xG 0.02–0.08 (20%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMahura – Fleury8:20
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Montour – Dunn2:37
xG 0.04–0.01 (84%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn13:33
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).