Sun, Feb 9, 2025·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 26 | 28 | 17 | 521 |
| MTL | 113 | 19 | 113 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:56TBLNick PaulAssists: Brandon Hagel · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 10:28TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Gage Goncalves, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 18:53MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Alex Newhook, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 1:05TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 6:43TBLZemgus GirgensonsGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Michael Eyssimont · Snap, 0.27 xG4–1
- P2 12:45MTLChristian DvorakAssists: David Savard, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 9:19MTLBrendan GallagherUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 19:44TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.78 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:08TBLDarren Raddysh: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:08MTLPatrik Laine: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:19TBLVictor Hedman: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 17:04TBLDarren Raddysh: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:22MTLMike Matheson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:14TBLLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Dach
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Atkinson – Girgensons – Eyssimont7:47
xG 0.32–0.27 (54%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Hagel2:46
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Chaffee – Duke6:31
xG 0.09–0.29 (25%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
- Guentzel – Cirelli – Goncalves9:58
xG 0.53–1.09 (33%)attempts 10–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak15:15
xG 0.83–0.39 (68%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Hedman – Raddysh4:18
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg11:51
xG 0.36–1.03 (26%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestAnderson – Dach – Newhook10:06
xG 1.06–0.50 (68%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Evans – Suzuki – Caufield11:46
xG 1.06–0.54 (66%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Laine – Beck6:04
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Slafkovský8:57
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Xhekaj9:50
xG 0.85–0.42 (67%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Matheson – Carrier13:11
xG 0.85–0.49 (63%)attempts 25–10goals 1–1
- Carrier – Struble4:23
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).