Sat, Feb 22, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 8, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 15 | 512 | 213 | 830 |
| PIT | 19 | 111 | 112 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:13WSHEthen FrankAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:21PITKris LetangPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Philip Tomasino · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 1:10WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Brandon Duhaime, Taylor Raddysh · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 6:36PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 10:38WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P2 14:17WSHJakob ChychrunGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–2
- P2 14:25WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Rasmus Sandin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P2 18:05WSHTom WilsonAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Matt Roy · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–2
- P3 13:11WSHDylan StromePPAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.10 xG7–2
- P3 14:22PITDanton HeinenAssists: Philip Tomasino, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.14 xG7–3
- P3 17:19WSHBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.13 xG8–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:50PITVincent Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:50WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:36WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:04WSHJakob Chychrun: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:26PITVincent Desharnais: Holding2 min
- P3 2:59PITKris Letang: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:16PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Raddysh – Duhaime7:21
xG 0.52–0.17 (76%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael3:19
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 3–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome3:37
xG 0.03–0.06 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas6:39
xG 0.30–0.54 (35%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun10:53
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 18–7goals 3–1
- Roy – Chychrun5:04
xG 0.14–0.02 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin11:46
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 8–15goals 2–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Bunting – Glass8:28
xG 1.24–0.33 (79%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Hayes – Heinen – Tomasino11:54
xG 0.85–0.39 (68%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte8:56
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Crosby – Rakell – Beauvillier12:31
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 19–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Grzelcyk15:10
xG 1.36–0.39 (78%)attempts 27–12goals 1–2
- Graves – Desharnais11:34
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
- Letang – Joseph18:20
xG 0.46–0.84 (36%)attempts 23–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).