Sun, Mar 2, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 213 | 311 | 08 | 11 | 633 |
| PIT | 317 | 111 | 16 | 00 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:15TORMax DomiAssists: Bobby McMann, Nick Robertson · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 4:39TORConor TimminsAssists: Pontus Holmberg, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 10:27PITCody GlassAssists: Ryan Shea, Blake Lizotte · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 11:29PITRickard RakellAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 13:51PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 4:08TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 15:38PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 19:04TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
- P2 19:59TORMatthew KniesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–4
- P3 0:10PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–5
- OT 1:00TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.11 xG6–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:08TORMax Domi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:45TORMax Domi: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:01PITKris Letang: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Holmberg13:21
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Marner – Matthews – Knies14:13
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 16–15goals 2–2
- Domi – Robertson – McMann9:21
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Dewar6:52
xG 0.01–0.32 (3%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit13:34
xG 1.06–0.76 (58%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- McCabe – Benoit2:29
xG 0.15–0.02 (90%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – McCabe4:41
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Heinen – Bemstrom6:39
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Beauvillier – Tomasino12:38
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell15:00
xG 0.76–0.86 (47%)attempts 16–18goals 3–1
- Acciari – Glass – Lizotte13:58
xG 0.47–0.58 (44%)attempts 16–13goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Shea19:11
xG 0.78–0.21 (79%)attempts 25–12goals 2–1
- Graves – Desharnais8:27
xG 0.26–0.49 (34%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk19:33
xG 0.79–1.19 (40%)attempts 19–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).