Mon, Mar 3, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Ottawa Senators 4, Washington Capitals 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 011 | 114 | 39 | 03 | 0 | 437 |
| WSH | 219 | 112 | 19 | 01 | 1 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41WSHConnor McMichaelAssists: Martin Fehérváry, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 3:34WSHPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Connor McMichael, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 6:53WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 12:18OTTShane PintoAssists: Jake Sanderson, Claude Giroux · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 1:05OTTClaude GirouxPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 8:01OTTShane PintoAssists: Michael Amadio, Thomas Chabot · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 12:43WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Tom Wilson, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 18:52OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. WSH Pierre-Luc Dubois stopped
- 2. OTT Drake Batherson stopped
- 3. WSH John Carlson stopped
- 4. OTT Tim Stützle stopped
- 5. WSH Dylan Strome scored
- 6. OTT Claude Giroux stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:41OTTDavid Perron: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 2:20WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:05OTTDrake Batherson: Elbowing2 min
- P1 13:57WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:29OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:29WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:13WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:58OTTDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 14:55OTTNick Jensen: Interference2 min
- P2 19:38WSHTaylor Raddysh: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:29WSHAliaksei Protas: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:23WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- OT 1:49WSHAlex Ovechkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Highmore – Gaudette – Gregor3:09
xG 0.02–0.05 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig6:26
xG 0.20–0.30 (40%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Perron – Norris – Batherson7:18
xG 0.36–0.60 (37%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle7:13
xG 0.42–0.95 (31%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Sanderson2:34
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub12:36
xG 0.60–0.73 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Matinpalo10:03
xG 0.50–0.72 (41%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Raddysh – Duhaime7:47
xG 0.42–0.04 (92%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael6:45
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas5:59
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Eller – Mangiapane – Frank7:21
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chychrun10:03
xG 0.84–0.44 (66%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Roy – Sandin2:52
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin6:41
xG 0.18–0.14 (55%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).