Wed, Mar 5, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 016 | 19 | 16 | 231 |
| VGK | 38 | 215 | 02 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33VGKTomas HertlAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 11:18VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Keegan Kolesar · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 15:03VGKJack EichelPPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Pavel Dorofeyev · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 0:17VGKNoah HanifinAssists: Jack Eichel, Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P2 13:33VGKTanner PearsonAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Tomas Hertl · Poke, 0.18 xG0–5
- P2 18:01TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–5
- P3 13:27TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:03VGKZach Whitecloud: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:03TORMatthew Knies: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:57VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:50TORCalle Jarnkrok: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:14TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:38VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:33TORNick Robertson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 16:45VGKKeegan Kolesar: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:36TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:36VGKBrett Howden: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:36TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:36VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Marner – McMann4:17
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Holmberg7:07
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Kampf – Robertson3:34
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Holmberg4:25
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit6:00
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Rielly – Myers10:57
xG 0.26–0.22 (55%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Timmins8:25
xG 0.18–0.13 (58%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Hertl – Dorofeyev2:27
xG 0.57–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev7:26
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Stone – Pearson – Eichel7:32
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Barbashev – Kolesar – Howden9:55
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Korczak13:12
xG 1.14–0.26 (81%)attempts 19–13goals 2–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud12:16
xG 0.83–0.30 (73%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin3:07
xG 0.50–0.06 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).