Thu, Mar 6, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 312 | 28 | 013 | 533 |
| TBL | 27 | 313 | 16 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01TBLNick PaulAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Brandon Hagel · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 5:17BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Ryan McLeod, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 5:53TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–2
- P1 8:20BUFAlex TuchUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P1 17:09BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Ryan McLeod, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 0:58TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Erik Cernak, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 9:35BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–3
- P2 12:40BUFJJ PeterkaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–3
- P2 17:43TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Brayden Point, Nick Paul · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–4
- P2 18:46TBLJake GuentzelPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Slap, 0.10 xG5–5
- P3 1:40TBLOliver BjorkstrandGWGAssists: Yanni Gourde, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:23BUFTage Thompson: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:57TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:15TBLGage Goncalves: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:10BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:10TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:10BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P3 10:25BUFJJ Peterka: Holding2 min
- P3 18:06TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:43TBLRyan McDonagh: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – McLeod – Benson3:03
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Tuch – Krebs – Cozens4:00
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs2:17
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Lafferty – McLeod – Krebs2:22
xG 0.07–0.10 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin17:09
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Clifton – Power3:10
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Bryson – Byram4:35
xG 0.08–0.14 (35%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Glendening – Girgensons – Chaffee7:33
xG 0.10–0.20 (32%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point10:42
xG 0.65–0.77 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Goncalves8:52
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 6–5goals 0–2
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel10:39
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Moser6:19
xG 0.44–0.06 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg8:14
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Cernak – Lilleberg3:52
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).