Thu, Mar 6, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
51%
10%
8%
31%
TBL winsBUF wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TBL forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against BUF's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Thompson–Peterka–Kulich | Tuch–Greenway–Cozens | Tuch–Krebs–Cozens | Lafferty–McLeod–Benson | Lafferty–Malenstyn–McLeod | Lafferty–McLeod–Krebs | McLeod–Quinn–Benson | Lafferty–Malenstyn–Krebs | Thompson–McLeod–Peterka | Malenstyn–McLeod–Krebs | Samuelsson–Dahlin | Byram–Power | Clifton–Bryson | Bryson–Byram | Clifton–Power | Samuelsson–Power | Samuelsson–Byram | Dahlin–Power | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kucherov–Guentzel–Point | 4:390.33–0.20 | 1:070.00–0.11 | 0:540.00–0.21 | 0:400.05–0.03 | 1:180.21–0.07 | 0:330.00–0.06 | 2:490.01–0.30 | 2:160.29–0.05 | 1:100.21–0.00 | 1:420.14–0.08 | 0:570.00–0.25 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.07 | |||||
| Paul–Cirelli–Hagel | 2:270.09–0.03 | 3:530.11–0.00 | 2:140.00–0.05 | 0:360.00–0.12 | 2:410.11–0.00 | 2:140.06–0.00 | 2:430.06–0.15 | 1:260.00–0.05 | ||||||||||
| Gourde–Bjorkstrand–Goncalves | 0:580.00–0.00 | 2:270.04–0.07 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.12 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:450.05–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 1:000.00–0.04 | 3:370.06–0.00 | 2:590.09–0.12 | 1:350.00–0.29 | |||||||
| Glendening–Girgensons–Chaffee | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:440.00–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.04 | 2:040.05–0.16 | 4:250.05–0.16 | 1:050.00–0.00 | 0:530.00–0.04 | 0:330.04–0.00 | |||||||||
| Guentzel–Paul–Point | 0:380.19–0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| Gourde–Paul–Hagel | 0:570.00–0.07 | 0:410.00–0.00 | ||||||||||||||||
| McDonagh–Cernak | 5:230.25–0.26 | 1:030.00–0.07 | 0:400.00–0.12 | 2:570.01–0.22 | 1:400.24–0.06 | 2:040.03–0.15 | 0:520.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Raddysh–Lilleberg | 0:480.00–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.05 | 0:490.00–0.02 | 0:470.05–0.00 | 1:000.21–0.00 | 1:160.05–0.05 | 1:000.00–0.04 | 3:190.05–0.05 | 2:180.11–0.04 | 1:080.21–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.05 | |||||||
| McDonagh–Raddysh | 3:000.25–0.07 | 1:440.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.04 | 1:360.10–0.00 | 0:320.14–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.04 | 1:570.14–0.00 | 1:180.00–0.07 | 0:380.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Cernak–Moser | 0:420.00–0.00 | 2:420.44–0.02 | 1:070.00–0.04 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 2:440.07–0.06 | 0:580.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:450.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Raddysh–Moser | 0:400.00–0.00 | 1:010.09–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.08 | 1:050.00–0.23 | 0:400.05–0.03 | 1:360.15–0.11 | 0:460.05–0.03 | 0:420.00–0.12 | 0:460.00–0.08 | |||||||||
| Moser–Lilleberg | 0:350.02–0.07 | 1:100.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 0:560.00–0.11 | 1:590.07–0.11 | 1:450.06–0.07 | ||||||||||||
| Cernak–Lilleberg | 0:500.00–0.00 | 1:110.34–0.19 | 1:240.00–0.00 | 1:160.34–0.19 | ||||||||||||||
| McDonagh–Moser | 0:370.03–0.00 | 1:090.01–0.00 | 1:120.03–0.17 | |||||||||||||||
| Hedman–Moser | 2:040.04–0.00 | 1:210.00–0.00 | 1:210.04–0.02 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TBLBUFFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Ryan McDonaghTBL | 31 | 25:41 | 0:50 | 1:56 | 5 | 2 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 31 | 25:12 | 0:49 | 2:02 | 4 | 5 |
 Darren RaddyshTBL | 27 | 24:47 | 0:55 | 1:36 | 7 | 2 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 29 | 23:35 | 0:49 | 2:13 | 5 | 5 |
 J.J. MoserTBL | 30 | 22:53 | 0:46 | 1:22 | 0 | 5 |
 Erik CernakTBL | 32 | 22:10 | 0:42 | 2:52 | 1 | 5 |
 Brandon HagelTBL | 26 | 21:42 | 0:50 | 2:05 | 4 | 3 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 26 | 21:38 | 0:50 | 1:54 | 4 | 6 |
 JJ PeterkaBUF | 26 | 21:35 | 0:50 | 2:43 | 1 | 2 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 29 | 21:00 | 0:43 | 2:07 | 4 | 3 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 30 | 20:18 | 0:41 | 1:14 | 4 | 3 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 25 | 19:19 | 0:46 | 2:43 | 2 | 3 |
 Jiri KulichBUF | 26 | 18:55 | 0:44 | 2:43 | 4 | 0 |
 Jake GuentzelTBL | 24 | 18:27 | 0:46 | 1:55 | 6 | 1 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 25 | 17:54 | 0:43 | 1:09 | 4 | 4 |
 Anthony CirelliTBL | 23 | 17:46 | 0:46 | 1:59 | 3 | 6 |
 Nikita KucherovTBL | 21 | 17:18 | 0:49 | 2:39 | 7 | 1 |
 Emil LillebergTBL | 24 | 17:01 | 0:43 | 1:34 | 2 | 1 |
 Dylan CozensBUF | 26 | 16:54 | 0:39 | 1:21 | 3 | 3 |
 Yanni GourdeTBL | 22 | 16:47 | 0:46 | 1:49 | 2 | 2 |
 Brayden PointTBL | 23 | 16:45 | 0:44 | 1:42 | 7 | 1 |
 Nick PaulTBL | 21 | 15:42 | 0:45 | 1:28 | 3 | 1 |
 Connor CliftonBUF | 21 | 15:36 | 0:45 | 1:32 | 1 | 4 |
 Jacob BrysonBUF | 21 | 13:55 | 0:40 | 1:28 | 1 | 2 |
 Oliver BjorkstrandTBL | 20 | 13:53 | 0:42 | 1:12 | 3 | 2 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 20 | 13:47 | 0:41 | 1:08 | 1 | 5 |
 Sam LaffertyBUF | 19 | 12:32 | 0:40 | 1:15 | 2 | 5 |
 Jordan GreenwayBUF | 20 | 12:16 | 0:37 | 1:07 | 3 | 4 |
 Gage GoncalvesTBL | 15 | 11:07 | 0:44 | 1:06 | 2 | 1 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsTBL | 17 | 11:02 | 0:39 | 1:06 | 2 | 4 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 15 | 10:57 | 0:44 | 1:14 | 1 | 3 |
 Luke GlendeningTBL | 18 | 10:49 | 0:36 | 1:04 | 2 | 6 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 16 | 9:43 | 0:36 | 1:00 | 1 | 1 |
 Mitchell ChaffeeTBL | 13 | 8:42 | 0:40 | 1:09 | 2 | 2 |
 Victor HedmanTBL | 3 | 2:57 | 0:59 | 1:17 | 0 | 0 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 4 | 2:25 | 0:36 | 0:57 | 0 | 1 |