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Ice Lab

Thu, Mar 6, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Buffalo Sabres 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.

TBL winsBUF wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:25Shot by Cirelli, saved by Luukkonen
  3. P1 2:07Shot by Lilleberg, saved by Luukkonen
  4. P1 2:28Shot by Point, saved by Luukkonen
  5. P1 2:57Shot by Lafferty, saved by Vasilevskiy
  6. P1 3:39Shot by Moser, saved by Luukkonen
  7. P1 4:03Shot by Power, saved by Vasilevskiy
  8. P1 5:01Goal by Paul (McDonagh, Hagel)+10 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Paul, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · BUF Clifton, Bryson, McLeod, Quinn, Peterka

  9. P1 5:17Goal by Dahlin (McLeod, Benson)+10 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Cernak · BUF McLeod, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Quinn, Benson

  10. P1 5:53Goal by Raddysh (Girgensons)+11 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Glendening, Girgensons, Raddysh, Chaffee, Lilleberg · BUF Lafferty, Malenstyn, Krebs, Byram, Power

  11. P1 7:14Shot by Moser, saved by Luukkonen
  12. P1 7:55Shot by Dahlin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  13. P1 7:59Shot by Byram, saved by Vasilevskiy
  14. P1 8:20Goal by Tuch, unassisted+11 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Bjorkstrand, Goncalves, Moser, Lilleberg · BUF Tuch, Greenway, Byram, Cozens, Power

  15. P1 8:23Thompson: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Paul, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Peterka, Kulich

  16. P1 11:01Shot by Thompson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  17. P1 13:26Shot by Dahlin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  18. P1 13:33Shot by Dahlin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  19. P1 14:13Shot by Power, saved by Vasilevskiy
  20. P1 17:09Goal by Krebs (McLeod, Benson)+19 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Bjorkstrand, Goncalves, Moser · BUF Clifton, Bryson, McLeod, Krebs, Benson

  21. P1 18:40Shot by Clifton, saved by Vasilevskiy
  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:41Shot by Peterka, saved by Vasilevskiy
  25. P2 0:58Goal by Guentzel (Cernak, Kucherov)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Cernak · BUF Thompson, Byram, Peterka, Power, Kulich

  26. P2 1:57Cernak: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Glendening, Girgensons, Cernak, Goncalves, Moser · BUF Greenway, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Krebs, Cozens

  27. P2 5:58Shot by Moser, saved by Luukkonen
  28. P2 8:10Shot by Paul, saved by Luukkonen
  29. P2 8:13Shot by Kucherov, saved by Luukkonen
  30. P2 9:15Goncalves: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Gourde, Bjorkstrand, Cernak, Goncalves · BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Peterka, Kulich

  31. P2 9:35Goal by Thompson (Dahlin, Peterka)4v5+21 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Peterka, Kulich

  32. P2 9:56Shot by Raddysh, saved by Luukkonen
  33. P2 10:59Shot by Hagel, saved by Luukkonen
  34. P2 11:01Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Luukkonen
  35. P2 11:09Shot by Cernak, saved by Luukkonen
  36. P2 12:20Shot by Cernak, saved by Luukkonen
  37. P2 12:40Goal by Peterka, unassisted+16 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Cernak · BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Peterka, Kulich

  38. P2 13:11Shot by Greenway, saved by Vasilevskiy
  39. P2 13:49Shot by Krebs, saved by Vasilevskiy
  40. P2 16:35Shot by Chaffee, saved by Luukkonen
  41. P2 17:43Goal by Guentzel (Point, Paul)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Guentzel, Paul, Point, Raddysh · BUF Malenstyn, Krebs, Byram, Power, Kulich

  42. P2 18:08Shot by Cirelli, saved by Luukkonen
  43. P2 18:10Dahlin: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser · BUF Tuch, Greenway, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Cozens

  44. P2 18:10Cirelli: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser · BUF Tuch, Greenway, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Cozens

  45. P2 18:10Dahlin: Roughing removing opponents helmet (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser · BUF Tuch, Greenway, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Cozens

  46. P2 18:46Goal by Guentzel (Hagel, Raddysh)5v4+25 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, Raddysh, Hagel · BUF Clifton, Greenway, McLeod, Samuelsson

  47. P2 18:47Shot by Thompson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  48. P2 19:29Shot by Kulich, saved by Vasilevskiy
  49. P2 19:46Shot by Power, saved by Vasilevskiy
  50. P2 0:00Period end
  51. P3 0:00Period start
  52. P3 0:47Shot by Raddysh, saved by Luukkonen
  53. P3 1:09Shot by Thompson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  54. P3 1:37Shot by Gourde, saved by Luukkonen
  55. P3 1:40Goal by Bjorkstrand (Gourde, Kucherov)+24 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Gourde, Bjorkstrand, Cernak, Lilleberg · BUF Clifton, Lafferty, Malenstyn, McLeod, Power

  56. P3 3:38Shot by Lafferty, saved by Vasilevskiy
  57. P3 4:15Shot by Tuch, saved by Vasilevskiy
  58. P3 6:47Shot by Power, saved by Vasilevskiy
  59. P3 7:02Shot by Lilleberg, saved by Luukkonen
  60. P3 7:34Shot by Kulich, saved by Vasilevskiy
  61. P3 8:57Shot by Cozens, saved by Vasilevskiy
  62. P3 9:43Shot by Kulich, saved by Vasilevskiy
  63. P3 10:25Peterka: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Point, Cernak, Moser · BUF Thompson, McLeod, Samuelsson, Byram, Peterka

  64. P3 12:30Shot by Benson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  65. P3 13:28Shot by Tuch, saved by Vasilevskiy
  66. P3 14:00Shot by Benson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  67. P3 14:55Shot by Glendening, saved by Luukkonen
  68. P3 15:33Shot by Gourde, saved by Luukkonen
  69. P3 15:52Shot by Tuch, saved by Vasilevskiy
  70. P3 18:06Hagel: Tripping (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Kucherov, Cernak, Cirelli, Hagel · BUF Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin, Byram, Peterka, Kulich

  71. P3 18:25Shot by Thompson, saved by Vasilevskiy4v6
  72. P3 19:25Shot by Dahlin, saved by Vasilevskiy4v6
  73. P3 19:43McDonagh: High sticking (2 min)4v6

    On ice: TBL McDonagh, Glendening, Girgensons, Cernak · BUF Tuch, Thompson, McLeod, Dahlin, Peterka, Kulich

  74. P3 0:00Period end4v6
  75. P3 0:00Final5v6