Thu, Mar 13, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Florida Panthers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 29 | 05 | 325 |
| TOR | 17 | 010 | 18 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander, Simon Benoit · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 17:51FLASam BennettPPAssists: Mackie Samoskevich, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P2 13:56FLANiko MikkolaAssists: A.J. Greer · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 17:13FLASam BennettPPGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Mackie Samoskevich · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 4:26TORMax DomiAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:54FLANate Schmidt: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:54TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:54TORDavid Kampf: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 17:16TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 2:49FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:57FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 15:16TORBobby McMann: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 2:03FLANate Schmidt: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Gadjovich – Sturm5:05
xG 0.23–0.08 (74%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Samoskevich11:03
xG 0.39–0.43 (48%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell9:10
xG 0.08–0.18 (30%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart10:48
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Balinskis7:47
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Mikkola14:39
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Jones – Forsling16:18
xG 0.19–0.71 (21%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies10:22
xG 0.82–0.17 (83%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – McMann2:38
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
- Tavares – Domi – Nylander2:42
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Tavares – Laughton – Nylander2:53
xG 0.01–0.03 (21%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo9:53
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Carlo2:57
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tanev – McCabe13:03
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).