Thu, Mar 20, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Colorado Avalanche 5, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 414 | 112 | 07 | 533 |
| OTT | 08 | 04 | 14 | 116 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:29COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 11:28COLBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Sam Malinski, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 14:23COLCale MakarPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–0
- P1 17:29COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Ross Colton, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–0
- P2 1:54COLBrock NelsonPPAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Ross Colton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG5–0
- P3 15:59OTTDylan CozensPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:13OTTRidly Greig: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:54OTTDylan Cozens: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 13:04OTTDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:04COLSam Malinski: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:35OTTShane Pinto: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:51OTTDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:26COLJack Drury: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:11COLKeaton Middleton: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Drury
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Lehkonen – Necas9:15
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Coyle – Colton – Kiviranta7:44
xG 0.32–0.08 (81%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Kelly – Drury – O'Connor11:35
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Drouin – Nichushkin10:31
xG 0.27–0.32 (46%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Middleton11:58
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Lindgren – Malinski12:36
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Johnson – Lindgren2:21
xG 0.17–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Pinto – Greig5:16
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
- Highmore – Gaudette – Pinto2:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Zetterlund – Tkachuk – Stützle5:56
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Highmore – Gaudette – Zetterlund3:23
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub2:27
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Chabot – Matinpalo2:35
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo10:55
xG 0.18–0.19 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).