Thu, Mar 27, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 4, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 28 | 117 | 17 | 432 |
| DET | 016 | 09 | 39 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:49OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Fabian Zetterlund · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:01OTTTim StützleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 1:33OTTDavid PerronAssists: Drake Batherson · Snap, 0.23 xG3–0
- P3 5:25DETPatrick KanePPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 8:44OTTMichael AmadioGWGAssists: Matthew Highmore · Snap, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 11:50DETLucas RaymondAssists: Marco Kasper · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 15:30DETVladimir TarasenkoAssists: J.T. Compher, Craig Smith · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:37OTTFabian Zetterlund: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:37OTTBrady Tkachuk: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:20OTTRidly Greig: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:07OTTDavid Perron: Holding2 min
- P1 18:47DETSimon Edvinsson: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:47OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:20OTTTyler Kleven: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:07DETCraig Smith: Holding2 min
- P2 6:05DETAlex DeBrincat: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:39OTTShane Pinto: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Kasper
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Batherson – Cozens9:14
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Amadio – Highmore – Gaudette4:47
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Tkachuk – Pinto – Greig8:27
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Zetterlund – Stützle4:32
xG 0.17–0.35 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub13:46
xG 1.24–0.20 (86%)attempts 19–7goals 2–1
- Jensen – Chabot17:07
xG 0.77–0.78 (50%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Kleven – Zub2:12
xG 0.01–0.12 (8%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Tarasenko – Compher2:24
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper5:43
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Compher – Rasmussen5:13
xG 0.10–0.34 (22%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Watson – Motte – Shine3:13
xG 0.01–0.38 (4%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Edvinsson13:18
xG 0.54–0.58 (48%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Holl – Johansson8:57
xG 0.53–0.78 (41%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider12:24
xG 0.21–1.31 (14%)attempts 6–20goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).