Sun, Mar 30, 2025·Capital One Arena, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 8, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 38 | 48 | 823 |
| WSH | 110 | 16 | 313 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:06WSHJakob ChychrunAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:49BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Alex Tuch, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:14BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Jack Quinn, Owen Power · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 2:46WSHJakob ChychrunUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 5:17BUFAlex TuchAssists: Connor Clifton, Jason Zucker · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 11:52BUFSam LaffertyAssists: Connor Clifton · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 0:37WSHAliaksei ProtasSHAssists: Tom Wilson, Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.30 xG4–3
- P3 1:28BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jason Zucker, JJ Peterka · Snap, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 5:52BUFJack QuinnGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–3
- P3 9:11WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG6–4
- P3 14:03WSHPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome · Tip-in, 0.11 xG6–5
- P3 15:34BUFAlex TuchAssists: Mattias Samuelsson · Tip-in, 0.03 xG7–5
- P3 19:36BUFPeyton KrebsENAssists: Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.76 xG8–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:28WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:10WSHRasmus Sandin: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 11:10BUFRyan McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:10WSHJohn Carlson: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:28BUFBowen Byram: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:30WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:51WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 12:58BUFBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Kozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Quinn – Peterka10:25
xG 0.63–0.45 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Kozak8:56
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Thompson – Kulich – Benson8:56
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 4–21goals 0–0
- Zucker – Tuch – Krebs7:27
xG 0.24–0.61 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Byram14:09
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 9–18goals 2–2
- Bernard-Docker – Power10:08
xG 0.24–0.51 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Byram – Power3:05
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Strome – Protas5:42
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Beauvillier – Dubois5:28
xG 0.30–0.07 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Wilson – Dubois – McMichael4:54
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Raddysh6:02
xG 0.15–0.01 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Chychrun4:15
xG 0.45–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Roy – Sandin2:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry3:19
xG 0.13–0.08 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).