Thu, Apr 3, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 18 | 011 | 132 |
| OTT | 18 | 18 | 03 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45OTTShane PintoAssists: Ridly Greig · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 5:17OTTJake SandersonPPGWGAssists: Tim Stützle, Ridly Greig · Slap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 7:00TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Yanni Gourde, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:15OTTThomas Chabot: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:24OTTDrake Batherson: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:10TBLGage Goncalves: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:12TBLJake Guentzel: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:55OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Guentzel – Point13:49
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel8:19
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Paul2:12
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Goncalves6:01
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak13:27
xG 1.23–0.49 (71%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg8:25
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh8:12
xG 0.14–0.22 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Pinto – Greig11:08
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Highmore – Gaudette – Crookshank2:19
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Giroux – Zetterlund – Stützle9:45
xG 0.12–0.20 (38%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens8:46
xG 0.16–0.34 (31%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub15:19
xG 0.80–0.62 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot13:20
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo11:46
xG 0.02–0.44 (4%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).