Sat, Apr 5, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 011 | 417 | 540 |
| DAL | 18 | 16 | 110 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 10:43DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Oskar Bäck, Lian Bichsel · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 12:36DALEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Mathew Dumba · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 0:20PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rutger McGroarty · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 3:11DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Thomas Harley, Ilya Lyubushkin · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 8:49PITBryan RustAssists: Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 18:17PITBlake LizotteGWGAssists: Danton Heinen · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 18:45PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.31 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:21PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
- P1 2:40DALMason Marchment: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:32DALIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:37DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:55PITKris Letang: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blackwell won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Rakell – Koivunen12:24
xG 0.81–0.42 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Heinen – Acciari – Lizotte11:50
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – McGroarty11:52
xG 0.51–0.36 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Hayes – Dewar – Tomasino4:43
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Grzelcyk18:17
xG 1.00–0.28 (78%)attempts 22–13goals 2–0
- Graves – Shea10:35
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Timmins14:50
xG 0.40–1.09 (27%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Blackwell – Bäck2:37
xG 0.17–0.03 (84%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Marchment10:41
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Bäck – Bourque3:25
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Rantanen – Hintz – Robertson12:01
xG 0.28–0.42 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Lindell12:41
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Harley – Bichsel2:08
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dumba – Bichsel13:13
xG 0.20–0.60 (25%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).