Thu, Apr 17, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 113 | 215 | 06 | 00 | 334 |
| TOR | 18 | 04 | 27 | 11 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:53TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 19:19DETAustin WatsonAssists: Justin Holl · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 2:16DETJustin HollAssists: Marco Kasper, Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 5:50DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 3:43TORPhilippe MyersAssists: Steven Lorentz, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 19:58TORChris TanevAssists: Mitch Marner, Pontus Holmberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 0:56TORScott LaughtonGWGAssists: Dakota Mermis, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 5:06TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:53DETMarco Kasper: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:03TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:25DETWilliam Lagesson: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laughton won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Compher – Rasmussen9:58
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper12:19
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Larkin – Berggren2:27
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Larkin – Rasmussen – Berggren2:19
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Lagesson13:45
xG 0.66–0.45 (59%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Seider – Edvinsson17:34
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Johansson16:54
xG 0.21–1.21 (15%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz12:15
xG 0.96–0.42 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies9:43
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Holmberg – Robertson – McMann10:55
xG 0.51–0.26 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Tavares – Domi – Nylander9:44
xG 0.08–0.50 (14%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Myers10:44
xG 1.10–0.70 (61%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Tanev – Benoit13:12
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Mermis – Carlo9:31
xG 0.37–0.23 (62%)attempts 7–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).