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Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 17, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Detroit Red Wings 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.

TOR winsDET wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:11Shot by Tarasenko, saved by Woll
  3. P1 2:50Shot by Motte, saved by Woll
  4. P1 5:45Shot by Lorentz, saved by Talbot
  5. P1 5:46Shot by Lorentz, saved by Talbot
  6. P1 7:59Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Woll
  7. P1 8:01Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Woll
  8. P1 8:16Shot by Carlo, saved by Talbot
  9. P1 10:38Shot by Holl, saved by Woll
  10. P1 10:48Shot by Holl, saved by Woll
  11. P1 10:56Shot by Holl, saved by Woll
  12. P1 11:32Shot by Laughton, saved by Talbot
  13. P1 13:15Shot by Mermis, saved by Talbot
  14. P1 13:46Shot by Robertson, saved by Talbot
  15. P1 14:43Shot by Myers, saved by Talbot
  16. P1 17:20Shot by Seider, saved by Woll
  17. P1 17:53Goal by Matthews (Knies, Marner)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Marner, Myers, Matthews, Knies · DET Larkin, Berggren, Seider, Raymond, Edvinsson

  18. P1 18:19Shot by Rasmussen, saved by Woll
  19. P1 18:43Shot by Motte, saved by Woll
  20. P1 19:19Goal by Watson (Holl)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Mermis, Carlo, Holmberg, Robertson, McMann · DET Smith, Holl, Watson, Motte, Lagesson

  21. P1 19:24Shot by Seider, saved by Woll
  22. P1 19:58Shot by Kasper, saved by Woll
  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 0:53Shot by Raymond, saved by Woll
  26. P2 1:37Shot by Kasper, saved by Woll
  27. P2 2:16Goal by Holl (Kasper, Tarasenko)+21 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Domi, Mermis, Carlo, Marner, Matthews · DET Holl, Tarasenko, Lagesson, DeBrincat, Kasper

  28. P2 3:10Shot by Motte, saved by Woll
  29. P2 5:06Tavares: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Myers, Knies · DET Kane, Berggren, Seider, Edvinsson, Kasper

  30. P2 5:10Shot by Lorentz, saved by Talbot4v5
  31. P2 5:50Goal by DeBrincat (Seider, Kane)4v5+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Laughton, Carlo, Lorentz, Benoit · DET Kane, Compher, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider

  32. P2 7:12Shot by Chiarot, saved by Woll
  33. P2 7:53Kasper: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tanev, Jarnkrok, Holmberg, Benoit, McMann · DET Kane, Lagesson, DeBrincat, Edvinsson, Kasper

  34. P2 8:03Tavares: Tripping (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Knies · DET Holl, Motte, Compher, Lagesson

  35. P2 8:35Shot by Larkin, saved by Woll4v4
  36. P2 8:42Shot by Kane, saved by Woll4v4
  37. P2 12:04Shot by Laughton, saved by Talbot
  38. P2 12:09Shot by Benoit, saved by Talbot
  39. P2 12:31Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Woll
  40. P2 12:33Shot by Kasper, saved by Woll
  41. P2 12:44Shot by Seider, saved by Woll
  42. P2 12:57Shot by Kasper, saved by Woll
  43. P2 14:25Lagesson: Interference (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Mermis, Nylander, Carlo, Marner, Matthews, Knies · DET Smith, Holl, Watson, Motte, Lagesson

  44. P2 15:22Shot by Kasper, saved by Woll5v4
  45. P2 15:23Shot by Kasper, saved by Woll5v4
  46. P2 19:20Shot by Compher, saved by Woll
  47. P2 19:55Shot by Lorentz, saved by Talbot
  48. P2 0:00Period end
  49. P3 0:00Period start
  50. P3 3:43Goal by Myers (Lorentz, Jarnkrok)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Laughton, Mermis, Lorentz, Myers · DET Smith, Chiarot, Watson, Motte, Johansson

  51. P3 4:25Shot by Benoit, saved by Talbot
  52. P3 6:30Shot by Lagesson, saved by Woll
  53. P3 7:54Shot by McMann, saved by Talbot
  54. P3 9:24Shot by Watson, saved by Woll
  55. P3 9:30Shot by Watson, saved by Woll
  56. P3 10:40Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Woll
  57. P3 12:36Shot by Watson, saved by Woll
  58. P3 13:05Shot by Edvinsson, saved by Woll
  59. P3 15:17Shot by McMann, saved by Talbot
  60. P3 16:57Shot by Myers, saved by Talbot
  61. P3 18:58Shot by Tavares, saved by Talbot6v5
  62. P3 19:58Goal by Tanev (Marner, Holmberg)6v5+51 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tanev, Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Holmberg, Knies · DET Kane, Compher, Rasmussen, Seider, Edvinsson

  63. P3 0:00Period end
  64. OT 0:00Period start
  65. OT 0:56Goal by Laughton (Mermis, Knies)3v3+46 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Laughton, Mermis, Knies · DET Kane, Larkin, Edvinsson

  66. OT 0:56Period end3v4
  67. OT 0:56Final4v4