Thu, Oct 9, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 213 | 012 | 337 |
| PIT | 111 | 29 | 18 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 12:02NYIJonathan DrouinAssists: Matthew Schaefer · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 4:04NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Mathew Barzal, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 5:41PITHarrison BrunickeAssists: Filip Hallander, Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 8:58PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 19:19NYIMaxim ShabanovAssists: Simon Holmstrom · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 14:21PITJustin BrazeauGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Anthony Mantha · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:00NYIAlexander Romanov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 7:41PITNoel Acciari: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:00NYIKyle Palmieri: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:00PITParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:43NYIBo Horvat: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:40PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:38NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:15NYISimon Holmstrom: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:15PITBen Kindel: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:45NYIJonathan Drouin: Cross checking5 min
- P3 19:45NYIJonathan Drouin: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Lee – Barzal10:39
xG 0.82–0.27 (75%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Drouin – Horvat – Heineman10:26
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Cizikas – Duclair – Tsyplakov8:16
xG 0.19–0.56 (26%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Pageau – Holmstrom – Shabanov7:07
xG 0.20–0.64 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Schaefer11:22
xG 0.74–0.59 (56%)attempts 13–13goals 3–2
- Pelech – Pulock12:37
xG 0.58–0.44 (57%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Koivunen6:12
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Malkin – Mantha – Brazeau8:41
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Novak – Koivunen – Kindel2:43
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Novak – Hallander – Kindel5:44
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Brunicke9:05
xG 0.81–0.31 (72%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Letang – Karlsson2:33
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea12:07
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).