Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 28 | 09 | 16 | 323 |
| DET | 013 | 315 | 37 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Nicolas Roy, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 12:29TORNicolas RoyAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 8:56DETMarco KasperAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 14:55DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Emmitt Finnie · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 18:10DETPatrick KaneAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Albert Johansson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 2:38TORMax DomiAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 6:45DETLucas RaymondPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 18:12DETSimon EdvinssonENAssists: Cam Talbot · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–5
- P3 19:55DETAndrew CoppENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:35TORBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:02DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka: Interference2 min
- P3 1:42TORAuston Matthews: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:42TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 7:21TORMax Domi: Holding2 min
- P3 11:54TORBobby McMann: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:54DETSimon Edvinsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:56DETJonatan Berggren: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Nylander – Roy2:34
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Matthews – Maccelli – Knies10:46
xG 0.56–0.54 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Domi – Joshua – Robertson6:30
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann8:01
xG 0.00–1.02 (0%)attempts 3–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe11:56
xG 0.53–0.21 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:02
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Carlo2:14
xG 0.11–0.33 (24%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Kasper10:13
xG 1.10–0.20 (85%)attempts 21–4goals 2–1
- Copp – Compher – Brandsegg-Nygård9:39
xG 0.84–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie11:37
xG 0.74–0.64 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Berggren7:00
xG 0.13–0.48 (21%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider16:40
xG 1.24–0.63 (66%)attempts 18–13goals 0–2
- Edvinsson – Sandin-Pellikka14:29
xG 0.98–0.50 (66%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson8:42
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 17–5goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).