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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Detroit Red Wings 6

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Final

Home

Detroit Red Wings

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 80% of the time.

DET winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:16Shot by Brandsegg-Nygård, saved by Stolarz
  3. P1 1:18Shot by Compher, saved by Stolarz
  4. P1 1:42Shot by Bernard-Docker, saved by Stolarz
  5. P1 2:27Goal by Jarnkrok (Roy, Tanev)+15 pts WP

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Appleton, Rasmussen, Berggren, Seider · TOR Tanev, Jarnkrok, McCabe, Roy, Lorentz

  6. P1 3:20Shot by Larkin, saved by Stolarz
  7. P1 6:16Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  8. P1 7:58Shot by Bernard-Docker, saved by Stolarz
  9. P1 9:04Shot by Robertson, saved by Talbot
  10. P1 9:33Shot by Knies, saved by Talbot
  11. P1 9:54Shot by Seider, saved by Stolarz
  12. P1 11:10Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Stolarz
  13. P1 11:25Shot by Kane, saved by Stolarz
  14. P1 11:34Shot by Joshua, saved by Talbot
  15. P1 12:00Shot by Appleton, saved by Stolarz
  16. P1 12:29Goal by Roy (Rielly, Nylander)+14 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kane, Chiarot, DeBrincat, Seider, Kasper · TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, Nylander, Carlo, Roy

  17. P1 12:59Shot by Finnie, saved by Stolarz
  18. P1 15:56Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  19. P1 16:29Shot by Copp, saved by Stolarz
  20. P1 16:35Carlo: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Copp, Compher, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka, Brandsegg-Nygård · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Carlo, McMann

  21. P1 16:58Shot by Roy, saved by Talbot5v4
  22. P1 18:35Shot by Kasper, saved by Stolarz5v4
  23. P1 19:23Shot by Johansson, saved by Stolarz
  24. P1 0:00Period end
  25. P2 0:00Period start
  26. P2 1:11Shot by Joshua, saved by Talbot
  27. P2 3:07Shot by Knies, saved by Talbot
  28. P2 4:18Shot by Edvinsson, saved by Stolarz
  29. P2 4:22Shot by Rielly, saved by Talbot
  30. P2 4:42Shot by Sandin-Pellikka, saved by Stolarz
  31. P2 5:32Shot by Domi, saved by Talbot
  32. P2 5:51Shot by Roy, saved by Talbot
  33. P2 6:36Shot by Larkin, saved by Stolarz
  34. P2 6:50Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  35. P2 7:39Shot by Tavares, saved by Talbot
  36. P2 8:56Goal by Kasper (Kane, DeBrincat)+16 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kane, DeBrincat, Bernard-Docker, Johansson, Kasper · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Nylander, Roy, Benoit

  37. P2 10:03Shot by Sandin-Pellikka, saved by Stolarz
  38. P2 11:13Shot by Finnie, saved by Stolarz
  39. P2 11:14Shot by Larkin, saved by Stolarz
  40. P2 12:29Shot by Brandsegg-Nygård, saved by Stolarz
  41. P2 13:28Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Stolarz
  42. P2 14:10Shot by Kasper, saved by Stolarz
  43. P2 14:55Goal by Raymond (Larkin, Finnie)+19 pts WP

    On ice: DET Larkin, Bernard-Docker, Johansson, Raymond, Finnie · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Joshua, Roy

  44. P2 17:30Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  45. P2 18:05Shot by Johansson, saved by Stolarz
  46. P2 18:10Goal by Kane (DeBrincat, Johansson)+29 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kane, DeBrincat, Bernard-Docker, Johansson, Kasper · TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, Joshua, Carlo, Roy

  47. P2 19:09Shot by Kane, saved by Stolarz
  48. P2 19:44Shot by Larkin, saved by Stolarz
  49. P2 19:50Shot by Domi, saved by Talbot
  50. P2 0:00Period end
  51. P3 0:00Period start
  52. P3 1:02Sandin-Pellikka: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: DET Copp, Compher, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka, Brandsegg-Nygård · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Joshua, Matthews, Maccelli

  53. P3 1:15Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot4v5
  54. P3 1:42Matthews: High sticking (2 min)4v5

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Appleton, Rasmussen, Seider · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Knies

  55. P3 2:38Goal by Domi (Rielly)4v4+32 pts WP

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Copp, Seider, Kasper · TOR Rielly, Domi, Carlo, Knies

  56. P3 3:03Shot by Roy, saved by Talbot5v4
  57. P3 4:28Shot by Sandin-Pellikka, saved by Stolarz
  58. P3 4:58Shot by Kasper, saved by Stolarz
  59. P3 5:13Shot by Kane, saved by Stolarz
  60. P3 5:42Ekman-Larsson: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Larkin, Seider, Raymond, Finnie · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Matthews, Benoit, Knies

  61. P3 6:45Goal by Raymond (Kane, DeBrincat)5v4+32 pts WP

    On ice: DET Kane, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond · TOR Tanev, McCabe, Matthews, Knies

  62. P3 7:21Domi: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Appleton, Rasmussen, Berggren, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Benoit, Robertson, McMann

  63. P3 11:54McMann: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Larkin, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka, Finnie, Brandsegg-Nygård · TOR McCabe, Nylander, Carlo, Matthews, McMann

  64. P3 11:54Edvinsson: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: DET Larkin, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka, Finnie, Brandsegg-Nygård · TOR McCabe, Nylander, Carlo, Matthews, McMann

  65. P3 13:45Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Stolarz4v4
  66. P3 14:56Berggren: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: DET Larkin, Berggren, Raymond, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Joshua, Benoit, Maccelli

  67. P3 15:59Shot by Rielly, saved by Talbot4v5
  68. P3 16:11Shot by Knies, saved by Talbot4v5
  69. P3 17:02Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  70. P3 18:12Goal by Edvinsson (Talbot)5v6+6 pts WP

    On ice: DET Larkin, Johansson, Raymond, Edvinsson, Finnie · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Domi, Nylander, Matthews, Knies

  71. P3 19:55Goal by Copp, unassisted5v60 pts WP

    On ice: DET Chiarot, Copp, Compher, Seider, Raymond · TOR Tavares, Carlo, Benoit, Robertson, Maccelli, McMann

  72. P3 0:00Period end
  73. P3 0:00Final