Sat, Oct 11, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 112 | 15 | 00 | 323 |
| CAR | 015 | 312 | 011 | 11 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:38PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 3:46CARLogan StankovenAssists: Jackson Blake, Alexander Nikishin · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 6:18PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Noah Cates, Nikita Grebenkin · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 9:07CARTaylor HallAssists: Eric Robinson · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 18:30CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 16:00PHITravis SanheimAssists: Bobby Brink, Tyson Foerster · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 4:43CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Shayne Gostisbehere · Slap, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:09PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
- P1 11:08PHIEgor Zamula: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:14PHINoah Cates: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:53PHIGarnet Hathaway: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:53CARJackson Blake: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:29CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:25CARK'Andre Miller: Interference2 min
- P3 2:11PHIMatvei Michkov: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:42CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Stankoven
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Grebenkin – Luchanko6:08
xG 0.34–0.25 (58%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Tippett – Zegras11:52
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster9:55
xG 0.46–1.01 (31%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
- Couturier – Konecny – Michkov8:13
xG 0.25–0.85 (23%)attempts 4–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Drysdale2:06
xG 0.07–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Juulsen – Ginning9:11
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Zamula – Drysdale15:14
xG 0.51–0.82 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSvechnikov – Stankoven – Blake10:39
xG 0.97–0.19 (84%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier10:00
xG 0.77–0.14 (85%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Ehlers – Aho – Jarvis11:55
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Hall – Robinson – Kotkaniemi6:22
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Nikishin11:15
xG 1.14–0.28 (80%)attempts 13–9goals 2–1
- Slavin – Walker12:02
xG 0.85–0.16 (84%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Chatfield – Miller14:36
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).