Mon, Oct 13, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Colorado Avalanche 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 212 | 015 | 337 |
| BUF | 113 | 011 | 04 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:14COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Martin Necas, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:32BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 4:32COLCale MakarGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 11:59COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Martin Necas, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:38COLJack Drury: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:56COLRoss Colton: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 13:42BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P1 18:15COLCale Makar: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:54BUFAlex Tuch: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:38COLBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:38BUFAlex Tuch: Embellishment2 min
- P3 10:08BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P3 16:12BUFConor Timmins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Kozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Colton – Drury7:10
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas10:00
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Brindley5:48
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Nelson – Landeskog – Nichushkin5:05
xG 0.26–0.58 (31%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:11
xG 0.79–0.58 (58%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Solovyov – Malinski8:29
xG 0.35–0.50 (41%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson8:50
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Doan10:58
xG 0.95–0.45 (68%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Dunne – Kozak5:24
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Krebs8:37
xG 0.06–0.34 (14%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Danforth – Quinn – Kulich9:58
xG 0.24–0.87 (22%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Johnson7:51
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Byram15:57
xG 0.69–0.77 (47%)attempts 19–14goals 1–1
- Timmins – Power9:30
xG 0.22–0.59 (27%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).