Mon, Oct 13, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 04 | 25 | 315 |
| TOR | 013 | 011 | 216 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:55DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–0
- P3 4:25DETJames van RiemsdykAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 7:29TORMatthew KniesAssists: Bobby McMann · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 13:42TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 19:15DETMason AppletonGWGAssists: Ben Chiarot, Emmitt Finnie · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:53TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:42TORSimon Benoit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:57TORSimon Benoit: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:22DETDylan Larkin: Interference2 min
- P2 17:31TORMax Domi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:39DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:59DETDylan Larkin: Embellishment2 min
- P3 14:59TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- van Riemsdyk – Appleton – Rasmussen4:21
xG 0.12–0.15 (45%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper9:17
xG 0.24–0.37 (39%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Finnie6:12
xG 0.08–0.22 (26%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Copp – Compher – Brandsegg-Nygård8:51
xG 0.06–0.32 (16%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson9:18
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider17:19
xG 0.40–0.59 (40%)attempts 13–20goals 2–0
- Edvinsson – Sandin-Pellikka14:36
xG 0.26–0.84 (24%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMatthews – Knies – Cowan10:07
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Domi – Robertson – McMann7:21
xG 0.40–0.25 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Joshua – Roy7:11
xG 0.26–0.16 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Maccelli8:30
xG 0.34–0.31 (53%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Benoit13:39
xG 1.19–0.37 (76%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Tanev – McCabe13:39
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:28
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).