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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 13, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Detroit Red Wings 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Away

Detroit Red Wings

3

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.

TOR winsDET wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:21Shot by Kane, saved by Stolarz
  3. P1 3:36Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  4. P1 4:19Shot by Tavares, saved by Talbot
  5. P1 4:30Shot by Maccelli, saved by Talbot
  6. P1 5:01Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Stolarz
  7. P1 9:29Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Talbot
  8. P1 9:32Shot by Joshua, saved by Talbot
  9. P1 10:16Shot by Knies, saved by Talbot
  10. P1 10:20Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  11. P1 10:25Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Talbot
  12. P1 10:56Shot by Roy, saved by Talbot
  13. P1 11:04Shot by Rielly, saved by Talbot
  14. P1 12:33Shot by Robertson, saved by Talbot
  15. P1 14:41Shot by Carlo, saved by Talbot
  16. P1 16:53Rielly: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Rielly, Joshua, Carlo, Roy · DET Chiarot, Copp, Compher, Seider, Brandsegg-Nygård

  17. P1 17:48Shot by Benoit, saved by Talbot4v5
  18. P1 18:42Benoit: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Carlo, Matthews, Benoit, Knies · DET van Riemsdyk, Compher, Kasper, Sandin-Pellikka, Brandsegg-Nygård

  19. P1 18:49Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Stolarz3v5
  20. P1 18:50Shot by Larkin, saved by Stolarz3v5
  21. P1 18:51Shot by Larkin, saved by Stolarz3v5
  22. P1 18:55Goal by Larkin (DeBrincat, Raymond)4v5+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tanev, Rielly, McCabe, Roy · DET Kane, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond

  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 0:14Shot by Knies, saved by Talbot
  26. P2 1:47Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Stolarz
  27. P2 2:00Shot by Johansson, saved by Stolarz
  28. P2 2:43Shot by Bernard-Docker, saved by Stolarz
  29. P2 4:48Shot by Rielly, saved by Talbot
  30. P2 6:03Shot by Seider, saved by Stolarz
  31. P2 7:40Shot by Benoit, saved by Talbot
  32. P2 8:56Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  33. P2 11:20Shot by Rielly, saved by Talbot
  34. P2 11:42Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  35. P2 11:44Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Talbot
  36. P2 13:19Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  37. P2 13:57Benoit: Hooking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Benoit, Maccelli · DET Kane, Chiarot, Larkin, DeBrincat, Bernard-Docker, Kasper

  38. P2 14:53Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot4v5
  39. P2 15:22Larkin: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Knies · DET Compher, Larkin, DeBrincat, Seider, Edvinsson

  40. P2 17:31Domi: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Benoit, McMann, Cowan · DET Larkin, DeBrincat, Rasmussen, Johansson, Edvinsson

  41. P2 17:56Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Talbot4v5
  42. P2 19:34Shot by McMann, saved by Talbot
  43. P2 0:00Period end
  44. P3 0:00Period start
  45. P3 1:03Shot by Copp, saved by Stolarz
  46. P3 1:35Shot by McMann, saved by Talbot
  47. P3 1:44Shot by Robertson, saved by Talbot
  48. P3 1:52Shot by McMann, saved by Talbot
  49. P3 4:15Shot by McMann, saved by Talbot
  50. P3 4:25Goal by van Riemsdyk (Copp)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Carlo, Maccelli · DET van Riemsdyk, Chiarot, Copp, Rasmussen, Seider

  51. P3 5:16Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  52. P3 5:17Shot by Matthews, saved by Talbot
  53. P3 6:23Shot by Nylander, saved by Talbot
  54. P3 7:29Goal by Knies (McMann)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tanev, McCabe, Matthews, McMann, Knies · DET Copp, Compher, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka, Brandsegg-Nygård

  55. P3 7:35Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Stolarz
  56. P3 9:30Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Talbot
  57. P3 10:13Shot by Maccelli, saved by Talbot
  58. P3 10:39Larkin: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Domi, Nylander, Maccelli · DET Chiarot, Larkin, Appleton, Seider, Finnie

  59. P3 13:42Goal by Jarnkrok (Matthews, Knies)+29 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, Carlo, Matthews, Benoit, Knies · DET Kane, Compher, DeBrincat, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka

  60. P3 14:59Larkin: Embellishment (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Matthews, Benoit, Maccelli, Cowan · DET Copp, Larkin, Appleton, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka

  61. P3 14:59Ekman-Larsson: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Matthews, Benoit, Maccelli, Cowan · DET Copp, Larkin, Appleton, Edvinsson, Sandin-Pellikka

  62. P3 16:08Shot by Rielly, saved by Talbot4v4
  63. P3 16:49Shot by McMann, saved by Talbot4v4
  64. P3 16:56Shot by Carlo, saved by Talbot4v4
  65. P3 17:43Shot by Nylander, saved by Talbot
  66. P3 18:56Shot by Appleton, saved by Stolarz
  67. P3 19:15Goal by Appleton (Chiarot, Finnie)+41 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Nylander, Carlo, Matthews, Knies · DET Chiarot, Larkin, Appleton, Seider, Finnie

  68. P3 19:41Shot by Cowan, saved by Talbot6v5
  69. P3 0:00Period end6v5
  70. P3 0:00Final6v5