Wed, Oct 15, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 4, Buffalo Sabres 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 117 | 212 | 437 |
| BUF | 13 | 420 | 34 | 827 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01BUFJack QuinnPPAssists: Bowen Byram, Rasmus Dahlin · Slap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 16:09OTTTim StützleAssists: Fabian Zetterlund, Jordan Spence · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:58OTTJake SandersonPPAssists: Ridly Greig, Dylan Cozens · Poke, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 6:46BUFRyan McLeodSHAssists: Zach Benson, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 10:17BUFAlex TuchAssists: Jacob Bryson, Josh Doan · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 11:46BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 13:43BUFJason ZuckerPPGWGAssists: Josh Doan, Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 0:40OTTShane PintoAssists: Jordan Spence, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 2:15OTTLars EllerAssists: Nick Cousins, Jordan Spence · Slap, 0.19 xG4–5
- P3 2:32BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Alex Tuch, Josh Doan · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–6
- P3 3:17BUFJack QuinnAssists: Peyton Krebs, Zach Benson · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–7
- P3 16:44BUFJiri KulichENAssists: Tage Thompson, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.79 xG4–8
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:36OTTFabian Zetterlund: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:09BUFRyan Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 13:21BUFJacob Bryson: Delaying game2 min
- P2 2:17BUFBowen Byram: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:58BUFJack Quinn: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 5:48BUFAlex Tuch: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:03OTTShane Pinto: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03BUFConor Timmins: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:03OTTClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:03OTTClaude Giroux: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:03BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:12OTTRidly Greig: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kozak won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Zetterlund – Stützle7:17
xG 0.67–0.01 (98%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Perron – Batherson – Cozens9:09
xG 0.55–0.03 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Cousins – Lycksell9:40
xG 0.37–0.07 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Giroux – Zetterlund – Stützle3:59
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Sanderson5:54
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 2–0
- Sanderson – Zub7:53
xG 0.46–0.32 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Spence – Kleven10:13
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – McLeod – Doan7:03
xG 0.61–0.13 (82%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Zucker – Krebs – Quinn4:53
xG 0.40–0.10 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Danforth – Kozak2:10
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Doan2:15
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Johnson3:58
xG 0.48–0.03 (95%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Timmins – Byram2:45
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Bryson – Dahlin2:48
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).