Fri, Oct 17, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 05 | 119 | 02 | 132 |
| DET | 112 | 010 | 06 | 13 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:02DETAxel Sandin-PellikkaAssists: Dylan Larkin, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 16:17TBLJ.J. MoserAssists: Victor Hedman, Conor Geekie · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- OT 3:36DETDylan LarkinGWGAssists: J.T. Compher · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:53DETJacob Bernard-Docker: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:21DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:09TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:16DETMichael Brandsegg-Nygård: Holding2 min
- P2 17:28TBLAnthony Cirelli: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:04TBLConor Geekie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Kasper
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Point – Hagel5:39
xG 0.89–0.25 (78%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1
- Douglas – Chaffee – Finley5:34
xG 0.73–0.47 (61%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Geekie5:25
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Holmberg10:37
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Moser15:21
xG 1.32–0.63 (68%)attempts 30–14goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg10:35
xG 0.57–0.65 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Cernak14:41
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Rasmussen – Soderblom4:42
xG 0.47–0.12 (80%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Copp – Compher – Brandsegg-Nygård9:43
xG 0.38–0.11 (77%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper9:38
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Larkin – Appleton – Finnie10:36
xG 0.34–1.14 (23%)attempts 10–20goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Johansson9:49
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson4:44
xG 0.03–0.08 (23%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Seider19:00
xG 0.50–0.80 (38%)attempts 20–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).