Sat, Oct 18, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Islanders 5, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 311 | 27 | 523 |
| OTT | 111 | 316 | 05 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:01OTTDavid PerronPPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Arthur Kaliyev · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:32OTTShane PintoAssists: Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 6:50NYIEmil HeinemanAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Scott Mayfield · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 9:57NYIBo HorvatAssists: Ryan Pulock, Anders Lee · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 16:46OTTTim StützleAssists: Nick Jensen, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 17:45NYIAnders LeeAssists: Maxim Shabanov, Matthew Schaefer · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–3
- P2 18:47OTTDylan CozensAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P3 6:00NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Mathew Barzal, Adam Pelech · Snap, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 18:57NYIAnders LeeGWGAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:04NYIEmil Heineman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:58OTTNick Cousins: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:29OTTArtem Zub: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:41NYICasey Cizikas: Delaying game bench2 min
- P3 1:59OTTFabian Zetterlund: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:23NYIMatthew Schaefer: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pinto won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestDrouin – Horvat – Heineman11:07
xG 0.88–0.36 (71%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Lee – Pageau – Shabanov10:02
xG 0.83–0.50 (62%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Cizikas – MacLean – Holmstrom10:20
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Duclair – Barzal13:02
xG 0.29–1.11 (21%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock15:02
xG 0.87–0.21 (80%)attempts 14–8goals 2–1
- Mayfield – Schaefer15:36
xG 0.72–0.74 (50%)attempts 14–17goals 2–1
- DeAngelo – Boqvist14:27
xG 0.56–1.38 (29%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestAmadio – Pinto – Greig9:14
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Kaliyev – Stützle4:53
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Batherson – Cozens – Stützle5:26
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Perron – Eller – Kaliyev2:07
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot14:07
xG 0.58–0.35 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Spence – Kleven14:37
xG 0.60–0.66 (47%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
- Spence – Sanderson2:42
xG 0.14–0.25 (35%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).