Sat, Oct 18, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Seattle Kraken 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 29 | 07 | 14 | 428 |
| TOR | 19 | 110 | 111 | 00 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:29SEAShane WrightPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:56TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 14:19SEAJani NymanAssists: Mason Marchment, Shane Wright · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 16:01TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 17:44SEAVince DunnAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 1:21TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 3:06SEAJosh MahuraGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:38TORNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 8:58SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:44TORBobby McMann: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:04SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:05SEAMason Marchment: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 1:17SEARyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestMarchment – Nyman – Wright8:03
xG 0.27–0.12 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Hayden – Kartye – Nyman3:38
xG 0.08–0.03 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hayden – Kartye – Winterton2:30
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Tolvanen11:03
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Lindgren12:12
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Larsson – Dunn20:46
xG 0.70–0.78 (47%)attempts 21–18goals 2–1
- Oleksiak – Mahura2:12
xG 0.01–0.09 (9%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMatthews – Knies – Cowan7:25
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Domi – Joshua – Maccelli2:04
xG 0.19–0.04 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Joshua – Roy – Lorentz6:02
xG 0.26–0.12 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Maccelli5:09
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – McCabe10:48
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit11:53
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- McCabe – Carlo4:27
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).