Wed, Oct 22, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 05 | 211 | 015 | 231 |
| BUF | 011 | 213 | 27 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:00DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Albert Johansson, Jonatan Berggren · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 11:37BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Jack Quinn, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 16:28BUFTyson KozakAssists: Jack Quinn, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 18:20DETEmmitt FinnieAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 4:15BUFJack QuinnPPGWGAssists: Ryan McLeod, Bowen Byram · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 8:10BUFAlex TuchAssists: Josh Doan, Ryan McLeod · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:35DETSimon Edvinsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:04DETJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:41BUFZach Benson: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:33DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:22DETMichael Rasmussen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:17DETMoritz Seider: Interference2 min
- P3 12:49BUFJiri Kulich: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kozak won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Compher – Berggren6:45
xG 0.55–0.36 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- DeBrincat – Kasper – Brandsegg-Nygård6:54
xG 0.54–0.42 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Compher – Appleton – Berggren2:12
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Copp – Rasmussen3:25
xG 0.16–0.10 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChiarot – Seider16:28
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson9:46
xG 0.81–0.61 (57%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Edvinsson – Sandin-Pellikka12:06
xG 0.24–0.98 (20%)attempts 8–18goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – McLeod – Doan9:29
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Quinn – Kozak – Ostlund2:39
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Zucker – Quinn – Ostlund4:02
xG 0.19–0.23 (46%)attempts 2–6goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Kozak8:03
xG 0.12–0.50 (20%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Byram9:21
xG 0.70–0.23 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Metsa7:42
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Timmins – Samuelsson3:31
xG 0.33–0.37 (47%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).