Fri, Oct 24, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 29 | 011 | 114 | 334 |
| BUF | 212 | 29 | 19 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:38BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Ryan McLeod, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 5:01TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 6:12BUFJiri KulichAssists: Zach Benson, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 12:45TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 7:20BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Bowen Byram, Jiri Kulich · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 13:10BUFMattias SamuelssonGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Peyton Krebs · Slap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 1:55TORDakota JoshuaAssists: Easton Cowan, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 16:59BUFAlex TuchSHAssists: Owen Power · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:01BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:39BUFTage Thompson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:23TORMax Domi: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:26TORCalle Jarnkrok: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:23BUFRasmus Dahlin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:48BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kozak won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Roy – Cowan7:44
xG 0.56–0.12 (82%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Nylander – Matthews – McMann12:19
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Lorentz8:05
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies8:47
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Carlo12:10
xG 0.80–0.29 (73%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Myers5:03
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Mermis – Carlo4:24
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – McLeod – Doan10:00
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Tuch – Malenstyn – Krebs2:13
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – McLeod – Krebs2:10
xG 0.01–0.04 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Thompson – Kulich – Benson13:39
xG 0.46–0.49 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Power4:01
xG 0.37–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Metsa2:39
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 2–0
- Timmins – Byram5:01
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).