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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 24, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Buffalo Sabres 5

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Final

Home

Buffalo Sabres

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.

BUF winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:44Shot by Myers, saved by Lyon
  3. P1 4:16Shot by Samuelsson, saved by Stolarz
  4. P1 4:38Goal by Samuelsson (McLeod, Tuch)+13 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Tuch, McLeod, Samuelsson, Doan, Metsa · TOR Mermis, Joshua, Roy, Myers, Cowan

  5. P1 5:01Goal by Nylander (Ekman-Larsson, Carlo)+13 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Malenstyn, Dahlin, Krebs, Byram, Ostlund · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Carlo, Matthews, McMann

  6. P1 5:29Shot by Zucker, saved by Stolarz
  7. P1 5:58Shot by Domi, saved by Lyon
  8. P1 6:12Goal by Kulich (Benson, Thompson)+14 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Kulich, Benson, Metsa · TOR Jarnkrok, Mermis, Roy, Lorentz, Myers

  9. P1 7:24Shot by Quinn, saved by Stolarz
  10. P1 7:58Shot by Thompson, saved by Stolarz
  11. P1 8:51Shot by Malenstyn, saved by Stolarz
  12. P1 8:59Shot by Nylander, saved by Lyon
  13. P1 9:01Dahlin: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Malenstyn, Dahlin, Krebs, Byram, Quinn · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Carlo, Matthews, McMann

  14. P1 10:16Shot by Malenstyn, saved by Stolarz4v5
  15. P1 10:17Shot by Benson, saved by Stolarz4v5
  16. P1 10:38Shot by Domi, saved by Lyon4v5
  17. P1 10:54Shot by Krebs, saved by Stolarz4v5
  18. P1 11:15Shot by Timmins, saved by Stolarz
  19. P1 11:39Thompson: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Kulich, Benson, Metsa · TOR Joshua, Roy, Lorentz, Myers, Benoit

  20. P1 12:45Goal by Matthews (Tavares, Ekman-Larsson)4v5+16 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Tuch, Timmins, McLeod, Samuelsson · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Matthews, Knies

  21. P1 13:23Domi: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Dahlin, Byram, Ostlund, Benson · TOR Jarnkrok, Domi, Joshua, Carlo, Benoit

  22. P1 13:26Jarnkrok: High sticking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: BUF Tuch, McLeod, Byram, Quinn, Power · TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Carlo, Roy

  23. P1 14:19Shot by Matthews, saved by Lyon5v3
  24. P1 15:34Shot by Doan, saved by Stolarz
  25. P1 16:25Shot by Matthews, saved by Lyon
  26. P1 17:23Shot by Knies, saved by Lyon
  27. P1 0:00Period end
  28. P2 0:00Period start
  29. P2 0:53Shot by Thompson, saved by Stolarz
  30. P2 0:57Shot by Tuch, saved by Stolarz
  31. P2 1:20Shot by Doan, saved by Stolarz
  32. P2 1:47Shot by Myers, saved by Lyon
  33. P2 2:55Shot by Cowan, saved by Lyon
  34. P2 3:06Shot by Malenstyn, saved by Stolarz
  35. P2 3:45Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Lyon
  36. P2 5:18Shot by McCabe, saved by Lyon
  37. P2 5:37Shot by Domi, saved by Lyon
  38. P2 6:11Shot by Mermis, saved by Lyon
  39. P2 6:30Shot by Byram, saved by Stolarz
  40. P2 7:20Goal by Thompson (Byram, Kulich)+23 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Byram, Kulich, Benson · TOR Tavares, Myers, Benoit, Maccelli, Knies

  41. P2 9:21Shot by Matthews, saved by Lyon
  42. P2 10:08Shot by Tavares, saved by Lyon
  43. P2 11:52Shot by Doan, saved by Stolarz
  44. P2 13:10Goal by Samuelsson (Dahlin, Krebs)+14 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Samuelsson, Dahlin, Krebs, Kulich · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Jarnkrok, Domi, Carlo, Lorentz

  45. P2 14:14Shot by Carlo, saved by Lyon
  46. P2 15:47Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Lyon
  47. P2 16:31Shot by Thompson, saved by Stolarz
  48. P2 19:22Shot by Roy, saved by Lyon
  49. P2 0:00Period end
  50. P3 0:00Period start
  51. P3 0:35Shot by Benson, saved by Stolarz
  52. P3 1:52Shot by Joshua, saved by Lyon
  53. P3 1:55Goal by Joshua (Cowan, Roy)+13 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Zucker, Byram, Quinn, Ostlund, Metsa · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Joshua, Carlo, Roy, Cowan

  54. P3 2:47Shot by Power, saved by Stolarz
  55. P3 3:36Shot by McLeod, saved by Stolarz
  56. P3 4:10Shot by Timmins, saved by Stolarz
  57. P3 4:26Shot by Roy, saved by Lyon
  58. P3 4:35Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Lyon
  59. P3 7:49Shot by Zucker, saved by Stolarz
  60. P3 9:09Shot by Myers, saved by Lyon
  61. P3 11:59Shot by Quinn, saved by Stolarz
  62. P3 13:47Shot by Thompson, saved by Stolarz
  63. P3 13:48Shot by Benson, saved by Stolarz
  64. P3 14:22Shot by Benoit, saved by Lyon
  65. P3 15:23Dahlin: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: BUF Zucker, Thompson, Timmins, Dahlin, Krebs · TOR Tavares, McCabe, Mermis, Maccelli, Knies

  66. P3 15:27Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Lyon4v5
  67. P3 15:55Shot by Knies, saved by Lyon4v5
  68. P3 15:55Shot by Tavares, saved by Lyon4v5
  69. P3 16:46Shot by Maccelli, saved by Lyon4v5
  70. P3 16:59Goal by Tuch (Power)4v5+9 pts WP

    On ice: BUF Tuch, McLeod, Byram, Power · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Matthews, Maccelli, Knies

  71. P3 17:12Shot by Domi, saved by Lyon4v6
  72. P3 18:23Shot by Tavares, saved by Lyon5v6
  73. P3 18:46Shot by Knies, saved by Lyon5v6
  74. P3 19:47Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Lyon5v6
  75. P3 19:48Krebs: High sticking double minor (4 min)5v6

    On ice: BUF Thompson, Timmins, Dahlin, Krebs, Benson · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Matthews, McMann, Knies

  76. P3 0:00Period end4v6
  77. P3 0:00Final4v6