Fri, Oct 24, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
35%
9%
9%
46%
BUF winsTOR wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TOR's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Nylander–Matthews–McMann | Tavares–Maccelli–Knies | Jarnkrok–Domi–Lorentz | Joshua–Roy–Cowan | Tavares–Domi–Knies | Tavares–Joshua–Maccelli | Nylander–Matthews–Knies | Ekman-Larsson–Carlo | McCabe–Benoit | McCabe–Mermis | Ekman-Larsson–Myers | Mermis–Carlo | Myers–Benoit | Carlo–Myers | Mermis–Myers | Carlo–Benoit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thompson–Kulich–Benson | 4:350.23–0.14 | 2:270.12–0.11 | 2:170.00–0.03 | 1:410.00–0.21 | 4:120.04–0.17 | 2:360.00–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.00 | 2:270.00–0.21 | 1:150.12–0.00 | 0:440.15–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | |||||
| Tuch–McLeod–Doan | 2:220.00–0.03 | 2:430.12–0.04 | 1:510.11–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.01 | 0:390.06–0.00 | 1:460.07–0.03 | 2:170.04–0.00 | 1:080.05–0.02 | 1:200.13–0.00 | 1:060.01–0.01 | ||||||
| Zucker–Quinn–Ostlund | 1:120.12–0.00 | 2:160.06–0.09 | 2:170.00–0.05 | 2:050.00–0.28 | 2:330.00–0.31 | 0:550.05–0.00 | 0:480.11–0.00 | 1:440.00–0.24 | 1:080.03–0.00 | |||||||
| Tuch–Malenstyn–Krebs | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:310.00–0.07 | 0:470.28–0.07 | |||||||||||||
| Malenstyn–Krebs–Ostlund | 0:530.00–0.29 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.15 | 0:380.00–0.13 | ||||||||||||
| Malenstyn–McLeod–Krebs | 1:210.01–0.04 | 0:360.00–0.00 | 1:010.00–0.00 | 0:470.01–0.04 | ||||||||||||
| Malenstyn–Krebs–Kozak | 1:180.00–0.03 | 0:510.00–0.00 | 0:360.00–0.03 | |||||||||||||
| Malenstyn–Krebs–Quinn | 0:440.01–0.00 | 1:020.03–0.14 | ||||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 1:110.00–0.00 | 1:130.12–0.12 | 1:210.09–0.04 | 1:440.00–0.07 | 1:490.20–0.04 | 1:280.04–0.00 | 1:490.00–0.07 | 0:470.00–0.00 | 0:410.11–0.11 | 0:430.00–0.01 | ||||||
| Timmins–Power | 3:080.04–0.17 | 1:450.03–0.00 | 1:230.00–0.00 | 3:150.03–0.14 | 1:280.03–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.04 | 0:480.07–0.00 | |||||||||
| Timmins–Byram | 2:240.00–0.00 | 0:390.06–0.00 | 1:290.03–0.00 | 1:060.03–0.00 | 2:090.06–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Byram–Metsa | 0:510.01–0.04 | 1:140.00–0.00 | 1:110.00–0.27 | 1:370.00–0.27 | 1:070.00–0.00 | 0:410.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Dahlin–Byram | 0:390.00–0.15 | 1:010.01–0.00 | 1:050.00–0.01 | 1:260.00–0.00 | 1:220.02–0.29 | 0:550.00–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Samuelsson–Power | 1:280.03–0.00 | 0:510.00–0.01 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 1:120.03–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.01 | |||||||||||
| Timmins–Dahlin | 1:160.11–0.03 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.21 | 1:010.11–0.00 | 0:470.00–0.21 | |||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Metsa | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:410.01–0.03 | 0:410.09–0.00 | 1:050.00–0.00 | 0:420.21–0.00 | |||||||||||
| Byram–Power | 0:310.16–0.00 | 0:400.00–0.01 | 0:390.16–0.00 | |||||||||||||
| Power–Metsa | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:570.00–0.24 | |||||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Byram | 1:000.00–0.03 | 0:360.12–0.00 | ||||||||||||||
| Timmins–Samuelsson | 1:070.00–0.13 | 0:300.00–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.13 | |||||||||||||
| Dahlin–Power | 1:080.02–0.00 | 0:340.01–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFTORFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonTOR | 32 | 25:50 | 0:48 | 2:14 | 6 | 3 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 27 | 23:48 | 0:53 | 1:51 | 5 | 2 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 31 | 23:38 | 0:46 | 1:54 | 3 | 8 |
 Conor TimminsBUF | 29 | 23:37 | 0:49 | 1:47 | 2 | 6 |
 Brandon CarloTOR | 30 | 21:31 | 0:43 | 1:35 | 3 | 2 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 27 | 21:25 | 0:48 | 2:16 | 2 | 2 |
 Jake McCabeTOR | 29 | 20:32 | 0:42 | 1:59 | 3 | 6 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 30 | 20:28 | 0:41 | 1:42 | 1 | 4 |
 Zach BensonBUF | 25 | 20:25 | 0:49 | 2:00 | 3 | 3 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 27 | 20:03 | 0:45 | 1:33 | 1 | 8 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 26 | 20:02 | 0:46 | 1:37 | 3 | 3 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 25 | 19:34 | 0:47 | 1:45 | 2 | 7 |
 John TavaresTOR | 20 | 19:16 | 0:58 | 2:05 | 2 | 2 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 24 | 19:06 | 0:48 | 1:56 | 3 | 3 |
 Matthew KniesTOR | 21 | 19:03 | 0:54 | 1:55 | 2 | 3 |
 Bobby McMannTOR | 24 | 18:09 | 0:45 | 1:26 | 3 | 0 |
 William NylanderTOR | 23 | 17:39 | 0:46 | 1:43 | 4 | 0 |
 Simon BenoitTOR | 26 | 16:53 | 0:39 | 1:23 | 1 | 4 |
 Jiri KulichBUF | 22 | 16:50 | 0:46 | 1:25 | 2 | 3 |
 Nicolas RoyTOR | 21 | 15:11 | 0:43 | 1:19 | 2 | 3 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 21 | 14:55 | 0:43 | 1:25 | 3 | 2 |
 Matias MaccelliTOR | 17 | 14:40 | 0:52 | 1:47 | 0 | 2 |
 Max DomiTOR | 20 | 14:16 | 0:43 | 1:35 | 4 | 3 |
 Philippe MyersTOR | 20 | 14:05 | 0:42 | 1:09 | 0 | 3 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 19 | 13:43 | 0:43 | 1:16 | 1 | 1 |
 Dakota MermisTOR | 22 | 13:12 | 0:36 | 1:04 | 1 | 2 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 17 | 12:47 | 0:45 | 1:55 | 4 | 2 |
 Dakota JoshuaTOR | 20 | 12:36 | 0:38 | 1:02 | 1 | 3 |
 Noah OstlundBUF | 18 | 12:28 | 0:42 | 1:31 | 3 | 2 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 16 | 12:14 | 0:46 | 1:25 | 1 | 1 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 18 | 11:57 | 0:40 | 1:04 | 2 | 3 |
 Easton CowanTOR | 15 | 11:05 | 0:44 | 1:08 | 1 | 1 |
 Steven LorentzTOR | 15 | 10:49 | 0:43 | 1:20 | 2 | 3 |
 Calle JarnkrokTOR | 13 | 10:16 | 0:47 | 1:22 | 2 | 2 |
 Zach MetsaBUF | 14 | 9:41 | 0:42 | 1:49 | 6 | 0 |
 Tyson KozakBUF | 3 | 1:49 | 0:36 | 1:06 | 0 | 0 |