Sat, Oct 25, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Anaheim Ducks 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 015 | 114 | 211 | 340 |
| TBL | 112 | 29 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:10TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 4:42ANAJacob TroubaAssists: Troy Terry, Mason McTavish · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:19TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 14:20TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 7:11ANARyan PoehlingAssists: Ross Johnston, Drew Helleson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 8:10ANATroy TerryAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 16:45TBLAnthony CirelliPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:13TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:13ANALeo Carlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:45TBLPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:19ANAMason McTavish: Interference2 min
- P1 15:58ANARoss Johnston: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:58TBLEmil Lilleberg: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:58ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:58TBLEmil Lilleberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:18ANASam Colangelo: Interference2 min
- P3 3:16ANAOlen Zellweger: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:47ANACutter Gauthier: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:42ANARoss Johnston: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holmberg won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestTerry – Gauthier – Carlsson5:29
xG 0.27–0.09 (74%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gauthier – Carlsson8:27
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Granlund – Terry – Nesterenko2:00
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Terry – Poehling – Nesterenko4:10
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Trouba – LaCombe9:22
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov7:25
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Moore – Zellweger2:01
xG 0.07–0.30 (20%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Cirelli – Hagel3:15
xG 0.95–0.29 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 2–1
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point8:39
xG 0.97–0.35 (74%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel2:02
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – James2:44
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Moser13:25
xG 1.81–0.31 (85%)attempts 23–11goals 3–0
- McDonagh – Cernak15:14
xG 1.04–0.70 (60%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
- D'Astous – Lilleberg10:15
xG 0.21–0.25 (45%)attempts 6–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).