Sat, Oct 25, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 112 | 16 | 17 | 01 | 326 |
| TOR | 16 | 111 | 15 | 11 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:40BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jiri Kulich, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 18:33TORNick RobertsonAssists: Easton Cowan, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 1:59TORMatias MaccelliAssists: John Tavares, Matthew Knies · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 14:23BUFBowen ByramAssists: Conor Timmins, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 7:06BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 13:10TORDakota JoshuaAssists: Jake McCabe, Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 1:28TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:32BUFJosh Dunne: Interference2 min
- P1 7:05TORJake McCabe: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:09TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:22BUFAlex Tuch: Instigator2 min
- P1 14:22TORJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:22BUFAlex Tuch: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:22BUFAlex Tuch: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 4:21BUFMattias Samuelsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:12TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min
- P3 6:25TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Kulich – Benson10:45
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Zucker – Quinn – Ostlund6:14
xG 0.10–0.00 (97%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Dunne10:13
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tuch – McLeod – Doan6:46
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Power8:02
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Timmins – Byram5:51
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- Dahlin – Power4:10
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Maccelli – Knies9:29
xG 0.61–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Joshua – Roy – Cowan6:52
xG 0.06–0.14 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Lorentz4:51
xG 0.00–0.17 (2%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Matthews – Robertson – McMann11:54
xG 0.17–0.63 (21%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Rielly12:54
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Myers – Benoit11:14
xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
- McCabe – Carlo14:33
xG 0.29–0.66 (31%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).