Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Calgary Flames 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 19 | 18 | 112 | 329 |
| TOR | 011 | 216 | 210 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33CGYMorgan FrostAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 3:13TORMax DomiAssists: Steven Lorentz, Matias Maccelli · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 17:55CGYJoel FarabeeAssists: Justin Kirkland, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 19:25TORMatthew KniesAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 3:45TORMatthew KniesPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 14:49CGYSamuel HonzekAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–3
- P3 17:56TORMax DomiGWGAssists: Matthew Knies, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:11TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P1 11:06CGYConnor Zary: Interference2 min
- P1 14:02CGYMatt Coronato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 16:06CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:31TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:33CGYJoel Hanley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:40TORMatthew Knies: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Huberdeau – Frost12:52
xG 0.79–0.15 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Coronato3:10
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Farabee – Sharangovich – Zary7:11
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Honzek9:09
xG 0.38–0.65 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Bean14:34
xG 0.98–0.27 (79%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Hanley – Parekh5:57
xG 0.52–0.31 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Weegar – Hanley2:14
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Maccelli – Knies8:22
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nylander – Matthews – McMann9:58
xG 0.42–0.62 (40%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Domi – Lorentz – Robertson8:54
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
- Joshua – Roy – Cowan5:43
xG 0.04–0.42 (8%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Myers12:00
xG 0.64–0.56 (53%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- McCabe – Carlo12:17
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit8:01
xG 0.36–0.29 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).