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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 28, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Calgary Flames 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4

Away

Calgary Flames

3

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.

TOR winsCGY wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:10Shot by Hanley, saved by Stolarz
  3. P1 1:17Shot by Coleman, saved by Stolarz
  4. P1 3:06Shot by Matthews, saved by Wolf
  5. P1 3:36Shot by Matthews, saved by Wolf
  6. P1 4:33Goal by Frost (Huberdeau, Kadri)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Joshua, Carlo, Roy, Cowan · CGY Kadri, Huberdeau, Hanley, Frost, Parekh

  7. P1 6:04Shot by Matthews, saved by Wolf
  8. P1 6:33Shot by Bean, saved by Stolarz
  9. P1 6:39Shot by Kadri, saved by Stolarz
  10. P1 8:50Shot by Zary, saved by Stolarz
  11. P1 8:55Shot by Kadri, saved by Stolarz
  12. P1 9:11Ekman-Larsson: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Nylander, Carlo, Matthews, McMann · CGY Kadri, Huberdeau, Weegar, Bean, Frost

  13. P1 10:24Shot by Weegar, saved by Stolarz4v5
  14. P1 10:25Shot by Coleman, saved by Stolarz4v5
  15. P1 11:06Zary: Interference (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TOR Lorentz, Myers, Benoit, Robertson · CGY Coleman, Hanley, Bahl, Sharangovich, Zary

  16. P1 11:26Shot by Matthews, saved by Wolf5v4
  17. P1 13:01Shot by Carlo, saved by Wolf5v4
  18. P1 14:02Coronato: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Joshua, Roy, Benoit, Maccelli · CGY Weegar, Hanley, Kirkland, Lomberg, Parekh

  19. P1 14:25Shot by Matthews, saved by Wolf5v4
  20. P1 14:55Shot by Tavares, saved by Wolf5v4
  21. P1 15:17Shot by Knies, saved by Wolf5v4
  22. P1 15:41Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Wolf5v4
  23. P1 16:06Huberdeau: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Maccelli, McMann, Cowan · CGY Kadri, Huberdeau, Andersson, Bahl, Coronato

  24. P1 16:41Shot by Knies, saved by Wolf5v4
  25. P1 18:31Ekman-Larsson: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Joshua, Carlo, Roy, Lorentz · CGY Kadri, Huberdeau, Andersson, Frost, Bahl

  26. P1 19:57Shot by Myers, saved by Wolf4v5
  27. P1 0:00Period end4v5
  28. P2 0:00Period start
  29. P2 0:22Shot by Frost, saved by Stolarz4v5
  30. P2 1:29Shot by McMann, saved by Wolf
  31. P2 1:58Shot by Sharangovich, saved by Stolarz
  32. P2 1:59Shot by Sharangovich, saved by Stolarz
  33. P2 3:13Goal by Domi (Lorentz, Maccelli)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Lorentz, Benoit, Maccelli · CGY Kadri, Hanley, Lomberg, Coronato, Parekh

  34. P2 6:15Shot by Myers, saved by Wolf
  35. P2 7:18Shot by Tavares, saved by Wolf
  36. P2 7:45Shot by Lorentz, saved by Wolf
  37. P2 8:11Shot by Lomberg, saved by Stolarz
  38. P2 8:43Shot by McMann, saved by Wolf
  39. P2 10:09Shot by Knies, saved by Wolf
  40. P2 10:53Shot by Kadri, saved by Stolarz
  41. P2 12:13Shot by Benoit, saved by Wolf
  42. P2 13:18Shot by Myers, saved by Wolf
  43. P2 13:46Shot by McMann, saved by Wolf
  44. P2 14:42Shot by Carlo, saved by Wolf
  45. P2 15:50Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Wolf
  46. P2 16:58Shot by Joshua, saved by Wolf
  47. P2 17:16Shot by McCabe, saved by Wolf
  48. P2 17:55Goal by Farabee (Kirkland, Andersson)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Domi, Carlo, Lorentz, Benoit, Robertson · CGY Hanley, Kirkland, Andersson, Lomberg, Farabee

  49. P2 19:04Shot by Parekh, saved by Stolarz
  50. P2 19:05Shot by Kadri, saved by Stolarz
  51. P2 19:25Goal by Knies (Nylander)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Nylander, Carlo, Knies · CGY Backlund, Coleman, Andersson, Bahl, Honzek

  52. P2 19:32Shot by Tavares, saved by Wolf
  53. P2 0:00Period end
  54. P3 0:00Period start
  55. P3 1:39Shot by Tavares, saved by Wolf
  56. P3 3:33Hanley: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Maccelli, Knies · CGY Backlund, Coleman, Weegar, Hanley, Honzek

  57. P3 3:40Shot by Matthews, saved by Wolf5v4
  58. P3 3:41Shot by Tavares, saved by Wolf5v4
  59. P3 3:45Goal by Knies, unassisted5v4+33 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Knies · CGY Backlund, Coleman, Andersson, Bahl

  60. P3 4:22Shot by Kadri, saved by Stolarz
  61. P3 4:24Shot by Farabee, saved by Stolarz
  62. P3 4:57Shot by Rielly, saved by Wolf
  63. P3 5:12Shot by Robertson, saved by Wolf
  64. P3 5:40Knies: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Carlo, Maccelli, Knies · CGY Kirkland, Andersson, Lomberg, Bahl, Coronato

  65. P3 7:05Shot by Coleman, saved by Stolarz4v5
  66. P3 8:30Shot by Andersson, saved by Stolarz
  67. P3 9:24Shot by Zary, saved by Stolarz
  68. P3 10:39Shot by Lorentz, saved by Wolf
  69. P3 12:43Shot by Maccelli, saved by Wolf
  70. P3 13:15Shot by Backlund, saved by Stolarz
  71. P3 13:59Shot by Frost, saved by Stolarz
  72. P3 14:49Goal by Honzek (Backlund)+42 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Domi, Lorentz, Myers, Robertson · CGY Backlund, Coleman, Weegar, Bean, Honzek

  73. P3 17:14Shot by Domi, saved by Wolf
  74. P3 17:56Goal by Domi (Knies, Tavares)+48 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Domi, Carlo, Knies · CGY Backlund, Coleman, Huberdeau, Weegar, Bean

  75. P3 18:09Shot by Huberdeau, saved by Stolarz
  76. P3 18:10Shot by Frost, saved by Stolarz
  77. P3 18:12Shot by Huberdeau, saved by Stolarz
  78. P3 19:32Shot by Huberdeau, saved by Stolarz5v6
  79. P3 0:00Period end5v6
  80. P3 0:00Final5v6