Sat, Nov 1, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 29 | 115 | 05 | 05 | 0 | 334 |
| BUF | 310 | 07 | 06 | 01 | 1 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:07WSHDylan StromeAssists: Ryan Leonard · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 2:15WSHAliaksei ProtasAssists: Connor McMichael, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 2:30BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jason Zucker, Jordan Greenway · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 10:02BUFAlex TuchAssists: Josh Doan, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P1 18:45BUFIsak RosenAssists: Jack Quinn, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 19:17WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Matt Roy, Martin Fehérváry · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Quinn stopped
- 2. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 3. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 4. WSH Anthony Beauvillier stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch stopped
- 6. WSH Connor McMichael stopped
- 7. BUF Rasmus Dahlin stopped
- 8. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 9. BUF Bowen Byram scored
- 10. WSH Ryan Leonard stopped
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:39WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 7:04BUFJordan Greenway: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 7:04WSHTom Wilson: Instigator2 min
- P1 7:04BUFJordan Greenway: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:04WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:04WSHTom Wilson: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 6:20BUFAlex Tuch: Interference2 min
- P2 14:16WSHRyan Leonard: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:17BUFBowen Byram: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:17WSHRyan Leonard: Embellishment2 min
- P3 3:11WSHDeclan Chisholm: Holding2 min
- P3 6:09BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:26BUFBeck Malenstyn: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:48BUFAlex Tuch: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Beauvillier – Leonard3:39
xG 0.21–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Milano – Lapierre2:19
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Wilson – McMichael – Protas4:42
xG 0.21–0.19 (51%)attempts 2–5goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Beauvillier4:38
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Fehérváry5:32
xG 0.67–0.09 (88%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Roy – Chychrun6:17
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry6:51
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 6–7goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Greenway – Thompson6:05
xG 0.47–0.04 (92%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Dunne7:46
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Quinn – Rosen – Kulich7:41
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Tuch – McLeod – Doan8:19
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 5–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Power8:30
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 2–1
- Kesselring – Power3:06
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin11:09
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).