Sat, Nov 1, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 3, Buffalo Sabres 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
31%
8%
9%
52%
BUF winsWSH wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
BUF forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against WSH's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Dowd–Duhaime–Sourdif | Wilson–McMichael–Protas | Ovechkin–Strome–Beauvillier | Strome–Beauvillier–Leonard | Ovechkin–Milano–Lapierre | McMichael–Protas–Sourdif | Milano–Beauvillier–Lapierre | Ovechkin–McMichael–Protas | Dowd–Beauvillier–Protas | van Riemsdyk–Chisholm | Carlson–Chychrun | Carlson–Fehérváry | Roy–Chychrun | Roy–Fehérváry | van Riemsdyk–Chychrun | Carlson–Roy | van Riemsdyk–Roy | van Riemsdyk–Fehérváry | Carlson–van Riemsdyk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuch–McLeod–Doan | 1:390.00–0.03 | 0:340.00–0.00 | 0:550.04–0.04 | 1:050.00–0.12 | 1:010.00–0.08 | 1:550.00–0.04 | 1:300.04–0.09 | 1:430.07–0.12 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:300.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Malenstyn–Krebs–Dunne | 1:270.00–0.00 | 1:110.03–0.21 | 1:000.00–0.10 | 1:190.03–0.00 | 1:160.00–0.00 | 2:030.22–0.00 | 1:250.00–0.00 | 2:220.03–0.30 | 0:580.03–0.00 | 0:490.00–0.00 | |||||||||
| Quinn–Rosen–Kulich | 1:090.00–0.01 | 0:390.00–0.00 | 0:440.18–0.00 | 0:540.00–0.08 | 1:050.00–0.04 | 0:550.00–0.06 | 2:180.00–0.04 | 0:300.08–0.00 | 1:230.00–0.10 | 0:370.00–0.09 | 0:380.00–0.06 | 0:440.18–0.00 | |||||||
| Zucker–Greenway–Thompson | 2:090.18–0.01 | 1:530.16–0.00 | 0:330.00–0.03 | 0:420.00–0.00 | 0:320.12–0.00 | 0:480.26–0.00 | 1:010.00–0.03 | 2:150.09–0.01 | 0:330.00–0.00 | ||||||||||
| Samuelsson–Dahlin | 0:410.00–0.01 | 1:540.04–0.00 | 1:020.18–0.00 | 1:030.00–0.08 | 1:120.00–0.04 | 0:410.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 1:080.00–0.14 | 2:250.00–0.12 | 2:030.04–0.06 | 2:040.00–0.10 | 0:510.04–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.06 | 1:210.18–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | ||||
| Kesselring–Byram | 3:480.13–0.00 | 1:440.00–0.04 | 0:480.00–0.12 | 0:400.00–0.00 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 2:300.00–0.00 | 1:410.00–0.04 | 1:160.13–0.00 | 1:460.00–0.12 | 0:420.00–0.05 | |||||||||
| Timmins–Power | 2:120.00–0.00 | 0:580.03–0.21 | 0:420.00–0.03 | 1:210.03–0.00 | 0:430.00–0.00 | 1:050.22–0.00 | 0:540.00–0.00 | 2:250.15–0.23 | 1:340.03–0.03 | 0:310.00–0.00 | 1:010.11–0.00 | ||||||||
| Dahlin–Byram | 1:070.00–0.30 | 2:100.00–0.56 | |||||||||||||||||
| Kesselring–Power | 1:390.02–0.06 | 2:100.09–0.06 | |||||||||||||||||
| Timmins–Samuelsson | 0:360.04–0.00 | 0:340.01–0.10 | |||||||||||||||||
| Byram–Power | |||||||||||||||||||
| Dahlin–Kesselring | 0:490.12–0.00 | 0:490.12–0.00 | |||||||||||||||||
| Timmins–Byram | 0:460.00–0.00 | 0:460.00–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
BUFWSHFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 John CarlsonWSH | 27 | 28:05 | 1:02 | 2:15 | 5 | 2 |
 Jakob ChychrunWSH | 26 | 27:21 | 1:03 | 2:43 | 8 | 2 |
 Rasmus DahlinBUF | 26 | 26:12 | 1:00 | 3:10 | 3 | 4 |
 Dylan StromeWSH | 25 | 22:13 | 0:53 | 2:28 | 5 | 2 |
 Mattias SamuelssonBUF | 30 | 20:22 | 0:41 | 1:23 | 1 | 10 |
 Alex TuchBUF | 30 | 20:14 | 0:40 | 2:10 | 1 | 7 |
 Owen PowerBUF | 28 | 19:54 | 0:43 | 1:30 | 3 | 3 |
 Matt RoyWSH | 21 | 19:44 | 0:56 | 1:31 | 2 | 5 |
 Tage ThompsonBUF | 23 | 19:23 | 0:51 | 3:11 | 5 | 4 |
 Alex OvechkinWSH | 20 | 19:15 | 0:58 | 2:04 | 7 | 0 |
 Bowen ByramBUF | 24 | 18:54 | 0:47 | 1:46 | 2 | 0 |
 Michael KesselringBUF | 24 | 18:27 | 0:46 | 1:27 | 1 | 2 |
 Aliaksei ProtasWSH | 25 | 18:25 | 0:44 | 1:18 | 2 | 6 |
 Ryan McLeodBUF | 29 | 18:05 | 0:37 | 1:15 | 0 | 8 |
 Martin FehérváryWSH | 23 | 17:55 | 0:47 | 1:16 | 3 | 6 |
 Conor TimminsBUF | 26 | 17:47 | 0:41 | 1:28 | 2 | 7 |
 Anthony BeauvillierWSH | 20 | 17:27 | 0:52 | 1:28 | 1 | 2 |
 Connor McMichaelWSH | 25 | 16:48 | 0:40 | 1:29 | 2 | 4 |
 Nic DowdWSH | 24 | 16:41 | 0:42 | 1:40 | 1 | 7 |
 Jack QuinnBUF | 23 | 16:23 | 0:43 | 1:20 | 1 | 0 |
 Trevor van RiemsdykWSH | 18 | 16:00 | 0:53 | 1:41 | 0 | 1 |
 Josh DoanBUF | 21 | 15:32 | 0:44 | 1:25 | 3 | 3 |
 Tom WilsonWSH | 19 | 15:32 | 0:49 | 2:16 | 5 | 1 |
 Peyton KrebsBUF | 21 | 15:08 | 0:43 | 1:25 | 0 | 1 |
 Jason ZuckerBUF | 19 | 15:07 | 0:48 | 1:29 | 6 | 1 |
 Isak RosenBUF | 17 | 14:44 | 0:52 | 1:28 | 3 | 0 |
 Brandon DuhaimeWSH | 19 | 14:13 | 0:45 | 1:48 | 0 | 6 |
 Declan ChisholmWSH | 15 | 13:39 | 0:55 | 1:32 | 0 | 0 |
 Jordan GreenwayBUF | 21 | 13:28 | 0:38 | 1:15 | 4 | 6 |
 Justin SourdifWSH | 15 | 13:02 | 0:52 | 2:03 | 0 | 3 |
 Beck MalenstynBUF | 21 | 12:42 | 0:36 | 1:09 | 0 | 3 |
 Ryan LeonardWSH | 18 | 12:14 | 0:41 | 1:19 | 2 | 2 |
 Josh DunneBUF | 16 | 11:51 | 0:44 | 1:17 | 0 | 2 |
 Jiri KulichBUF | 14 | 11:19 | 0:49 | 1:32 | 1 | 0 |
 Hendrix LapierreWSH | 11 | 9:27 | 0:52 | 1:36 | 1 | 0 |
 Sonny MilanoWSH | 14 | 9:07 | 0:39 | 0:59 | 0 | 0 |