Wed, Nov 5, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Utah Mammoth 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 18 | 18 | 18 | 324 |
| TOR | 05 | 27 | 37 | 519 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:49UTAMichael CarconeAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 4:46TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Matthew Knies, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 8:56TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Matias Maccelli, Jake McCabe · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 16:27UTAMikhail SergachevAssists: Dmitri Simashev · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 8:06TORJohn TavaresAssists: Bobby McMann, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 15:40TORMatias MaccelliGWGAssists: Dakota Joshua, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 17:01TORMatthew KniesENAssists: William Nylander, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–5
- P3 18:53UTADylan GuentherAssists: Nate Schmidt, John Marino · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:56TORJohn Tavares: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:35TORScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:05TORBrandon Carlo: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00UTAJack McBain: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Mammoth
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – Carcone – McBain10:00
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Hayton12:29
xG 0.45–0.46 (49%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Peterka – Guenther – Cooley9:50
xG 0.38–0.57 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
- Stenlund – Tanev – Yamamoto9:46
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Sergachev2:43
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Simashev11:47
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Cole – Maatta7:54
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Robertson – McMann8:41
xG 0.52–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Nylander – Matthews – Knies12:35
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Laughton – Domi – Lorentz6:51
xG 0.28–0.45 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Joshua – Roy – Maccelli9:17
xG 0.26–0.52 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo13:56
xG 0.84–0.58 (59%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Rielly – Myers2:23
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Mermis – Myers11:16
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).