Sat, Nov 15, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 5, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 15 | 18 | 213 | 11 | 527 |
| DET | 15 | 315 | 08 | 00 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:23DETPatrick KaneAssists: Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 10:52BUFAlex TuchUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 3:52DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 5:56DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 8:50DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 17:58BUFJosh DoanAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Bowen Byram · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 4:25BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Josh Doan, Colten Ellis · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 9:28BUFRyan McLeodSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 1:05BUFMattias SamuelssonGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.18 xG5–4
Penalties (9)
- P2 5:26BUFNoah Ostlund: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:40DETPatrick Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:29BUFJosh Dunne: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:37BUFJordan Greenway: Interference2 min
- P2 18:23DETSimon Edvinsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:37DETSimon Edvinsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:05BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:13DETJonatan Berggren: Interference2 min
- P3 17:27BUFJack Quinn: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Doan2:37
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Quinn – Rosen – Ostlund4:44
xG 0.21–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – McLeod5:22
xG 0.39–0.37 (52%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Greenway – Doan – Kozak6:27
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKesselring – Power8:50
xG 0.86–0.05 (94%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Byram3:24
xG 0.49–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Power2:07
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Compher – Finnie10:34
xG 0.82–0.41 (66%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Copp – Rasmussen – Berggren6:52
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond10:05
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
- Appleton – Kasper – Danielson9:12
xG 0.07–0.42 (14%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Johansson2:44
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson7:47
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Seider – Edvinsson12:26
xG 0.57–0.83 (41%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).