Sat, Nov 15, 2025·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 4, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 210 | 14 | 01 | 1 | 423 |
| CGY | 012 | 210 | 111 | 01 | 0 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:19WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 7:52CGYJake BeanAssists: Brayden Pachal, Morgan Frost · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 8:25WPGTanner PearsonAssists: Luke Schenn, Logan Stanley · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 13:29CGYKevin BahlAssists: Matt Coronato, Morgan Frost · Slap, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 1:20WPGCole PerfettiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 18:46CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Morgan Frost stopped
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 3. CGY Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 4. WPG Jonathan Toews stopped
- 5. CGY Rasmus Andersson stopped
- 6. WPG Gabriel Vilardi scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:03WPGDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P3 0:58CGYConnor Zary: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:13WPGVladislav Namestnikov: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 3:31WPGMark Scheifele: Holding2 min
- OT 5:00WPGMark Scheifele: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Namestnikov – Perfetti11:21
xG 0.79–0.17 (83%)attempts 23–6goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Pearson – Ford7:15
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi16:23
xG 0.35–0.32 (52%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Iafallo12:30
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Stanley7:05
xG 0.65–0.31 (68%)attempts 15–5goals 1–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:08
xG 0.68–0.36 (66%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Stanley – Pionk4:11
xG 0.17–0.05 (76%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Zary – Klapka3:07
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Farabee2:39
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Kerins10:57
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
- Kadri – Kerins – Klapka2:24
xG 0.12–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Bahl16:36
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Weegar – Kuznetsov16:21
xG 0.62–0.75 (45%)attempts 12–19goals 0–0
- Bean – Pachal15:09
xG 0.50–0.77 (40%)attempts 14–24goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).