Mon, Nov 17, 2025·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Edmonton Oilers 1, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 110 | 016 | 133 |
| BUF | 16 | 213 | 29 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:03BUFNoah OstlundPPAssists: Isak Rosen, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 4:29EDMJack RoslovicAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 8:41BUFBowen ByramGWGAssists: Tyson Kozak, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 9:43BUFBeck MalenstynAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Mattias Samuelsson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 7:55BUFNoah OstlundAssists: Josh Dunne · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 17:37BUFTage ThompsonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:58EDMMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:50BUFJosh Doan: Interference2 min
- P1 18:36EDMConnor McDavid: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00EDMVasily Podkolzin: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:00BUFPeyton Krebs: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Kozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Henrique – Mangiapane – Frederic7:18
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid11:16
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Podkolzin – Savoie3:44
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Roslovic – Podkolzin6:04
xG 0.15–0.27 (35%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Regula10:32
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Kulak – Nurse4:24
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard17:14
xG 0.32–0.78 (29%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Doan12:59
xG 0.93–0.20 (82%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- McLeod – Quinn – Rosen11:32
xG 0.69–0.33 (68%)attempts 13–21goals 0–0
- Greenway – Krebs – Kozak10:38
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Dunne – Ostlund7:29
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin20:03
xG 1.25–0.50 (72%)attempts 22–16goals 1–0
- Timmins – Byram14:12
xG 0.84–0.25 (77%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Byram – Power2:48
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).