Thu, Nov 20, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa
Edmonton Oilers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 07 | 04 | 03 | 125 |
| TBL | 08 | 011 | 114 | 12 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32EDMTrent FredericAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P3 17:28TBLNick PaulAssists: J.J. Moser, Emil Lilleberg · Slap, 0.16 xG1–1
- OT 1:43TBLJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Darren Raddysh, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:13TBLJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:01TBLCurtis Douglas: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:01EDMDarnell Nurse: Instigator2 min
- P1 13:01EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:01EDMDarnell Nurse: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 0:00EDMAlec Regula: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:28EDMBrett Kulak: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:36TBLJ.J. Moser: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hagel won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hyman – McDavid – Frederic2:14
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Janmark – Frederic – Tomasek2:53
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – Mangiapane – Podkolzin9:30
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Roslovic – Savoie2:35
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Emberson12:21
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Nurse – Bouchard2:38
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Nurse2:01
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel11:23
xG 1.10–0.54 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Point – James5:34
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Bjorkstrand6:16
xG 0.08–0.07 (51%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Paul – Point5:05
xG 0.04–0.15 (21%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser15:17
xG 1.13–0.37 (75%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Moser – Lilleberg2:17
xG 0.31–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Raddysh – D'Astous2:30
xG 0.13–0.09 (61%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).