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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 20, 2025·Benchmark International Arena, Tampa

Edmonton Oilers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 2 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 59% of the time.

TBL winsEDM wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:12Shot by Kucherov, saved by Pickard
  3. P1 1:32Goal by Frederic (Draisaitl)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Bjorkstrand, Point, D'Astous, Lilleberg · EDM Kulak, Draisaitl, Frederic, Emberson, Podkolzin

  4. P1 2:13Guentzel: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Paul, Santini, Point, Carlile · EDM Henrique, Nurse, Mangiapane, Emberson, Savoie

  5. P1 2:46Shot by Bouchard, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  6. P1 2:56Shot by Moser, saved by Pickard4v5
  7. P1 3:30Shot by McDavid, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  8. P1 3:39Shot by McDavid, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  9. P1 5:19Shot by Henrique, saved by Vasilevskiy
  10. P1 7:17Shot by Hyman, saved by Vasilevskiy
  11. P1 7:50Shot by Paul, saved by Pickard
  12. P1 8:20Shot by Cirelli, saved by Pickard
  13. P1 8:46Shot by Podkolzin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  14. P1 11:27Shot by Nurse, saved by Vasilevskiy
  15. P1 12:51Shot by Raddysh, saved by Pickard
  16. P1 13:01Douglas: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Raddysh, Douglas, Goncalves, Moser, James · EDM Henrique, Ekholm, Nurse, Frederic, Savoie

  17. P1 13:01Nurse: Instigator (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Raddysh, Douglas, Goncalves, Moser, James · EDM Henrique, Ekholm, Nurse, Frederic, Savoie

  18. P1 13:01Nurse: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TBL Raddysh, Douglas, Goncalves, Moser, James · EDM Henrique, Ekholm, Nurse, Frederic, Savoie

  19. P1 13:01Nurse: Instigator misconduct (10 min)

    On ice: TBL Raddysh, Douglas, Goncalves, Moser, James · EDM Henrique, Ekholm, Nurse, Frederic, Savoie

  20. P1 13:35Shot by Point, saved by Pickard5v4
  21. P1 13:36Shot by Point, saved by Pickard5v4
  22. P1 14:18Shot by McDavid, saved by Vasilevskiy5v4
  23. P1 17:29Shot by Walman, saved by Vasilevskiy
  24. P1 18:09Shot by Tomasek, saved by Vasilevskiy
  25. P1 19:46Shot by Guentzel, saved by Pickard
  26. P1 0:00Regula: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Guentzel, Paul, Cirelli, D'Astous, Lilleberg · EDM Henrique, Walman, Roslovic, Regula, Savoie

  27. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  28. P2 0:00Period start
  29. P2 1:13Shot by Kucherov, saved by Pickard5v4
  30. P2 1:26Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Pickard5v4
  31. P2 4:40Shot by Hyman, saved by Vasilevskiy
  32. P2 5:07Shot by Kucherov, saved by Pickard
  33. P2 5:08Shot by Cirelli, saved by Pickard
  34. P2 5:16Shot by Bjorkstrand, saved by Pickard
  35. P2 6:34Shot by Podkolzin, saved by Vasilevskiy
  36. P2 6:39Shot by Emberson, saved by Vasilevskiy
  37. P2 6:47Shot by Hyman, saved by Vasilevskiy
  38. P2 9:28Kulak: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Paul, Goncalves, Moser, Carlile, James · EDM Hyman, Kulak, Roslovic, Emberson, Tomasek

  39. P2 11:13Shot by Hagel, saved by Pickard5v4
  40. P2 11:30Shot by Paul, saved by Pickard
  41. P2 13:04Shot by Ekholm, saved by Vasilevskiy
  42. P2 14:04Shot by Goncalves, saved by Pickard
  43. P2 14:33Shot by Guentzel, saved by Pickard
  44. P2 14:42Shot by Lilleberg, saved by Pickard
  45. P2 15:36Moser: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel, Moser · EDM Ekholm, Hyman, McDavid, Roslovic, Bouchard

  46. P2 16:21Shot by Draisaitl, saved by Vasilevskiy4v5
  47. P2 18:34Shot by Kulak, saved by Vasilevskiy
  48. P2 19:02Shot by Lilleberg, saved by Pickard
  49. P2 0:00Period end
  50. P3 0:00Period start
  51. P3 0:21Shot by Hagel, saved by Pickard
  52. P3 0:26Shot by Raddysh, saved by Pickard
  53. P3 0:27Shot by Cirelli, saved by Pickard
  54. P3 0:28Shot by Cirelli, saved by Pickard
  55. P3 0:33Shot by Kucherov, saved by Pickard
  56. P3 1:25Shot by Hagel, saved by Pickard
  57. P3 5:11Shot by Henrique, saved by Vasilevskiy
  58. P3 5:15Shot by Savoie, saved by Vasilevskiy
  59. P3 6:09Shot by Raddysh, saved by Pickard
  60. P3 7:35Shot by Kucherov, saved by Pickard
  61. P3 11:49Shot by Point, saved by Pickard
  62. P3 12:34Shot by Bouchard, saved by Vasilevskiy
  63. P3 13:56Shot by Raddysh, saved by Pickard
  64. P3 15:15Shot by Guentzel, saved by Pickard
  65. P3 15:27Shot by Mangiapane, saved by Vasilevskiy
  66. P3 16:11Shot by Kucherov, saved by Pickard
  67. P3 17:10Shot by Point, saved by Pickard
  68. P3 17:28Goal by Paul (Moser, Lilleberg)+34 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Gourde, Paul, Goncalves, Moser, Lilleberg · EDM Kulak, Nurse, Draisaitl, Mangiapane, McDavid

  69. P3 0:00Period end
  70. OT 0:00Period start
  71. OT 0:47Shot by Point, saved by Pickard3v3
  72. OT 1:32Shot by Nurse, saved by Vasilevskiy3v3
  73. OT 1:33Shot by Hyman, saved by Vasilevskiy3v3
  74. OT 1:34Shot by Roslovic, saved by Vasilevskiy3v3
  75. OT 1:43Goal by Guentzel (Raddysh, Kucherov)3v3+51 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Guentzel, Raddysh · EDM Hyman, Nurse, Roslovic

  76. OT 1:43Period end3v3
  77. OT 1:43Final4v4