Fri, Nov 28, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 39 | 27 | 627 |
| DET | 111 | 213 | 013 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:29DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Michael Rasmussen · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 17:07TBLDarren RaddyshPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 0:34TBLGage GoncalvesAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Paul · Snap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 3:01TBLYanni GourdeUnassisted · Snap, 0.25 xG3–1
- P2 3:13DETMichael RasmussenAssists: J.T. Compher · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 16:09TBLYanni GourdeGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 18:26DETDylan LarkinAssists: Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson · Snap, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 12:37TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Darren Raddysh, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–3
- P3 17:13TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.71 xG6–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:31DETAlex DeBrincat: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:13TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:32DETJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:32TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Girgensons – Holmberg12:54
xG 1.15–0.33 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel9:05
xG 0.88–0.66 (57%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – James2:35
xG 0.25–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Paul – Goncalves3:31
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestD'Astous – Lilleberg19:03
xG 1.47–1.28 (54%)attempts 18–18goals 2–2
- Raddysh – Moser18:20
xG 0.94–0.97 (49%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
- Santini – Carlile10:27
xG 0.23–0.29 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – Danielson7:27
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – DeBrincat – Kasper9:22
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Compher – Appleton – Rasmussen11:40
xG 0.62–0.35 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 2–1
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat2:26
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson16:27
xG 0.82–0.73 (53%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka18:14
xG 0.73–0.83 (47%)attempts 12–18goals 1–1
- Bernard-Docker – Johansson11:23
xG 0.70–1.06 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).