Sat, Nov 29, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 27 | 38 | 28 | 723 |
| PIT | 110 | 010 | 115 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:46TOROliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 8:14PITBen KindelPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Bat, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 11:06TOREaston CowanAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 2:24TORBobby McMannGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 4:53TORDakota JoshuaAssists: Nicolas Roy, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P2 13:58TORNicolas RoyPPAssists: Max Domi, Bobby McMann · Snap, 0.22 xG5–1
- P3 4:37PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kevin Hayes · Backhand, 0.13 xG5–2
- P3 7:14TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi, Matthew Knies · Snap, 0.04 xG6–2
- P3 13:16TORNick RobertsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG7–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:06TORDakota Mermis: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:26TORMax Domi: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:12PITConnor Dewar: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:05PITParker Wotherspoon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:57PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P3 14:18TORScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:18PITAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:18PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:18TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:29TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Joshua – Roy – McMann8:55
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Laughton – Lorentz – Robertson7:02
xG 0.20–0.42 (33%)attempts 2–13goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Cowan12:28
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
- Domi – Matthews – Knies12:12
xG 0.59–1.05 (36%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Rielly9:34
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 6–12goals 3–1
- McCabe – Stecher17:09
xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 10–19goals 2–0
- Rielly – Myers3:17
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Mantha – Novak10:22
xG 0.78–0.10 (88%)attempts 24–5goals 0–1
- Hayes – Koivunen – Kindel4:17
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Heinen – Koivunen – Kindel5:47
xG 0.37–0.03 (92%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Hayes – Rust8:34
xG 0.81–0.49 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wotherspoon14:29
xG 1.43–0.63 (69%)attempts 25–12goals 0–3
- Letang – Shea14:52
xG 0.82–0.18 (82%)attempts 20–6goals 0–1
- Dumba – Graves13:24
xG 0.48–0.73 (40%)attempts 19–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).