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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 29, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Pittsburgh Penguins 2

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

7

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

2

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.

PIT winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:52Shot by Malkin, saved by Hildeby
  3. P1 4:46Shot by Malkin, saved by Hildeby
  4. P1 5:05Shot by Malkin, saved by Hildeby
  5. P1 6:46Goal by Ekman-Larsson (Knies, Matthews)+15 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Hayes, Rust, Wotherspoon · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Matthews, Knies, Cowan

  6. P1 8:06Mermis: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Mantha, Novak, Shea · TOR Mermis, Joshua, Roy, Myers, McMann

  7. P1 8:14Goal by Kindel (Crosby, Rust)5v4+15 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Crosby, Karlsson, Rust, Kindel · TOR Laughton, McCabe, Lorentz, Stecher

  8. P1 9:31Shot by Knies, saved by Silovs
  9. P1 10:58Shot by Tavares, saved by Silovs
  10. P1 11:06Goal by Cowan (Nylander, Rielly)+16 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Karlsson, Hayes, Rust, Wotherspoon · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Nylander, Cowan

  11. P1 13:31Shot by Malkin, saved by Hildeby
  12. P1 13:36Shot by Novak, saved by Hildeby
  13. P1 14:05Shot by Crosby, saved by Hildeby
  14. P1 15:26Domi: Hooking (2 min)6v5

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Heinen, Shea, Koivunen, Kindel · TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Domi, Matthews, Knies

  15. P1 15:28Shot by Crosby, saved by Hildeby5v4
  16. P1 15:45Shot by Crosby, saved by Hildeby5v4
  17. P1 18:12Dewar: Hooking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Mantha, Heinen, Wotherspoon, Shea · TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Cowan

  18. P1 18:22Shot by Matthews, saved by Silovs4v5
  19. P1 19:02Shot by Tavares, saved by Silovs4v5
  20. P1 19:08Shot by Matthews, saved by Silovs4v5
  21. P1 19:32Shot by Lizotte, saved by Hildeby4v5
  22. P1 0:00Period end4v5
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 0:21Shot by Karlsson, saved by Hildeby
  25. P2 0:37Shot by Knies, saved by Silovs
  26. P2 0:46Shot by Lizotte, saved by Hildeby
  27. P2 2:24Goal by McMann (Rielly, Ekman-Larsson)+15 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Dumba, Graves, Mantha, Novak · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Joshua, Roy, McMann

  28. P2 2:46Shot by Hayes, saved by Hildeby
  29. P2 3:53Shot by Kindel, saved by Hildeby
  30. P2 4:53Goal by Joshua (Roy, Stecher)+9 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Letang, Shea, Koppanen, Dewar, Lizotte · TOR McCabe, Joshua, Roy, Stecher, McMann

  31. P2 7:02Shot by Shea, saved by Hildeby
  32. P2 7:56Shot by Kindel, saved by Hildeby
  33. P2 8:47Shot by Lizotte, saved by Hildeby
  34. P2 10:40Shot by Rust, saved by Hildeby
  35. P2 10:52Shot by Hayes, saved by Hildeby
  36. P2 12:01Shot by Ekman-Larsson, saved by Jarry
  37. P2 12:05Wotherspoon: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Graves, Wotherspoon, Koppanen, Dewar, Kindel · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Domi, Matthews, Knies

  38. P2 12:33Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry4v5
  39. P2 13:54Shot by McMann, saved by Jarry4v5
  40. P2 13:58Goal by Roy (Domi, McMann)4v5+4 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Letang, Shea, Dewar, Lizotte · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Domi, Roy, McMann

  41. P2 16:38Shot by Malkin, saved by Hildeby
  42. P2 18:52Shot by Joshua, saved by Jarry
  43. P2 18:57Rust: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Rust, Dumba, Graves, Heinen · TOR McCabe, Joshua, Roy, Stecher, McMann

  44. P2 0:00Period end4v5
  45. P3 0:00Period start
  46. P3 0:19Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry4v5
  47. P3 1:55Shot by McMann, saved by Jarry
  48. P3 2:44Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry
  49. P3 3:12Shot by Wotherspoon, saved by Hildeby
  50. P3 4:05Shot by Letang, saved by Hildeby
  51. P3 4:37Goal by Crosby (Hayes)+2 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Hayes, Rust, Dumba, Shea · TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Domi, Matthews, Knies

  52. P3 7:14Goal by Matthews (Domi, Knies)+1 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Karlsson, Hayes, Rust, Wotherspoon · TOR McCabe, Domi, Nylander, Matthews, Stecher

  53. P3 7:56Shot by Graves, saved by Hildeby
  54. P3 8:46Shot by Kindel, saved by Hildeby
  55. P3 9:23Shot by Wotherspoon, saved by Hildeby
  56. P3 9:31Shot by Karlsson, saved by Hildeby
  57. P3 10:12Shot by Matthews, saved by Jarry
  58. P3 10:31Shot by Dewar, saved by Hildeby
  59. P3 12:30Shot by Myers, saved by Jarry
  60. P3 12:42Shot by Lizotte, saved by Hildeby
  61. P3 12:57Shot by Nylander, saved by Jarry
  62. P3 13:16Goal by Robertson, unassisted0 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Dumba, Graves, Novak, Koivunen · TOR Rielly, Laughton, Lorentz, Stecher, Robertson

  63. P3 14:02Shot by Novak, saved by Hildeby
  64. P3 14:18Laughton: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Mantha, Novak, Shea · TOR Laughton, McCabe, Lorentz, Stecher, Robertson

  65. P3 14:18Mantha: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Mantha, Novak, Shea · TOR Laughton, McCabe, Lorentz, Stecher, Robertson

  66. P3 14:18Malkin: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Mantha, Novak, Shea · TOR Laughton, McCabe, Lorentz, Stecher, Robertson

  67. P3 14:18McCabe: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Mantha, Novak, Shea · TOR Laughton, McCabe, Lorentz, Stecher, Robertson

  68. P3 16:29Tavares: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Karlsson, Rust, Heinen, Wotherspoon, Kindel · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Mermis, Nylander, Cowan

  69. P3 16:32Shot by Malkin, saved by Hildeby5v4
  70. P3 16:33Shot by Kindel, saved by Hildeby5v4
  71. P3 17:59Shot by Hayes, saved by Hildeby5v4
  72. P3 18:42Shot by Heinen, saved by Hildeby
  73. P3 19:17Shot by Graves, saved by Hildeby
  74. P3 0:00Period end
  75. P3 0:00Final